Disaster tests for grids, dams and phone networks

Thankfully it hasn't happened, but natural disasters risk damaging the critical infrastructure that modern societies rely on to provide essential goods and services, and researchers are working out the best way to disaster test critical infrastructures such as road networks, power grids and dams, and work out what would happen if one natural catastrophe were to trigger another.

In developing the stress tests, researchers are considering issues such as how concrete and metal structures deform or rupture from natural phenomena such as earthquakes. Possible stress tests can take the form of computer simulations, modelling the layout of the infrastructure, such as a dam wall or gas pipeline, and adding layers of stresses and strains, representing the forces of nature at work.

The impact can be calculated using data such as fragility curves for the concrete or steel, to show graphically where problems could occur and where these might be worst. This can allow assessment of how much the dam or pipeline could withstand before rupturing, with the results presented as pass/fail or probable outcomes for a given intensity of stress. An important addition is to assess and map the cascading effects of failure, such as judging how a refinery or harbour that escapes direct damage from an earthquake might cope with a loss of electricity or cooling water from further afield. 

‘The aim is to produce a visually based geographic information system to present the risk of an event occurring in a particular location and the potential damage that could occur, and the effect that the damage on one network might have on another network,’ said Dr Mark Tucker, of Irish engineering consultancy Roughan & O’Donovan Innovative Solutions (ROD-IS), which is coordinating the INFRARISK research project.

Several parts of Europe have been affected by severe flooding this winter after heavy storms brought strong winds, coastal surges, and in some cases the heaviest rainfall in more than a century. At the same time, earthquakes are an ever-present threat in some southern European countries, while forest fires occur anually in countires like Spain and Portugal, and Mount Etna in Italy spews smoke and lava on a weekly basis.

The EU-funded INFRARISK project is looking at ways to improve risk assessments and how Europe-wide systems can be put in place to better protect road and rail network infrastructure from disasters. For case studies it will use parts of the planned Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T), a pan-European train, plane and ship network that is expected to start linking up national services across the continent by 2030.

While the consortium is focused on road and rail, in principle the system it is developing should be applicable to any network. ‘From the computer’s point of view, whether it is analysing road, rail, energy or telecoms networks is irrelevant, so in theory, the tool we develop could also be used for energy or telecoms networks, as long as you input the relevant data,’ Dr Tucker said. 

Dams, pipelines and ports

EU nuclear power stations have already undergone stress tests in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster, but many other plants and networks have not been analysed in such a systematic way. The EU-funded STREST project, coordinated by Dr Domenico Giardini from Switzerland’s ETH Zurich university, is working out how authorities can assess existing critical infrastructure such as dams, pipelines and ports to prepare for low-probability, high-impact disasters. 

‘The final goal is to enable ... European policies for the systematic implementation of stress tests,’ said project manager Dr Arnaud Mignan.

The tests will encompass earthquakes, tsunamis and floods, to assess the vulnerability of specific infrastructure and expected losses. They will also consider knock-on effects which may amplify the physical damage, the human cost, and the economic impact.

The three-year project, which started in 2013, will look at case studies ranging from an Italian oil refinery to dams in Switzerland, oil and gas pipelines in Turkey, gas storage and distribution in the Netherlands, Greek port infrastructure and an Italian industrial zone.

Identifying the risks can mean that planners avoid making the same mistakes when designing new networks, and even retrofit existing infrastructure to make it more disaster proof, Dr Mignan said.

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‘The final goal is to enable ... European policies for the systematic implementation of stress tests.’

Stress-testing communities

The ability of communities to learn how to withstand and manage disasters – their resilience – is the focus of the EU-funded emBRACE project, coordinated by Northumbria University in Newcastle, UK, and the Universite Catholique de Louvain in Brussels, Belgium.

Given the relative sophistication of modern life and infrastructure, dealing with the results of disasters has become more difficult, and more expensive.

The emBRACE consortium is looking at several case studies across Europe, including earthquakes, flooding in small and large river catchments, alpine hazards, and the impact of a heatwave on London.

‘You can think about resilience as being the ability of a system to adapt and learn and principally to maintain its function, with smaller adaptations and social learning,’ said Dr Hugh Deeming, technical coordinator of emBRACE. ‘So learning by mistakes, learning by experience, is a very important part of resilience.’

The emBRACE consortium aims to find a way to measure resilience in a way that helps policymakers decide what to fund in aiding communities to withstand natural hazards, and in managing the disaster cycle of mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery.

‘A community can decide that all its buildings need to be safe,’ Dr Deeming said. ‘But it also needs support at national and local government levels to make sure that building regulations are strictly adhered to.’