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Migration has become a central topic of European policy discussions, particularly following the refugee crisis of 2015. The QuantMig project, launched in 2020, aimed to move beyond traditional forecasting models by embracing uncertainty as a core element of migration analysis. Instead of trying to predict exact migration numbers, the team focused on mapping possible scenarios and identifying risks, thus equipping policymakers with better tools for preparing for unexpected events.
“Migration forecasting has often been limited by what we don’t know. QuantMig put that uncertainty front and centre, helping decision makers understand both the gaps in knowledge and the practical steps they can take to mitigate risks,” explains project coordinator Jakub Bijak, professor of Statistical Demography at the University of Southampton.
QuantMig developed ways to model migration scenarios, and their impacts on populations and labour forces, across 31 European countries, while also analysing displacement events such as natural disasters or conflicts to improve crisis preparedness.
Integrated research, smarter strategy
The consortium brought together seven leading institutions, along with an external Canadian research partner, forming an interdisciplinary team of demographers, economists, statisticians and migration policy experts. Their collaboration resulted in a seamlessly integrated research process where data analysis, scenario development and policy engagement worked hand in hand.
“We built the project in a way that each research stream fed directly into another. This ensured that our estimates of past and current migration trends could directly shape our models for future scenarios,” says Bijak.
Despite the challenges of COVID-19, the project successfully engaged with policymakers and stakeholders across Europe. Outreach activities included interactive public resources, educational materials on migration uncertainty, and a high-profile final event in Brussels – European migration and asylum scenarios for the future.
Impact on policy and practice
The project’s work resonated beyond academia, influencing discussions within key European agencies such as the EU Agency for Asylum and Frontex. Its insights on migration uncertainty and preparedness have been widely acknowledged, contributing to a shift in how migration forecasting is approached.
Among its achievements was the creation of a comprehensive European migration hub, providing high-quality, open access data on migration estimates, policies and scenarios, to inform future research and decision-making. Additionally, open data deposits, three of which featured on the UN Migration Hub, further enriched the resources available to researchers and policymakers.
Through expert meetings and high-profile events that brought together leading voices in migration research, the project shaped strategies for migration challenges, uncertainty management and knowledge exchange. It directly engaged with over 400 policymakers and 1 000 researchers, while outreach at more than 40 conferences expanded its impact across media, civil society and the wider public.
Outputs were shared widely through a range of media, including eight videos and podcasts, five migration-related databases, and a teaching resource set now featured in the Open Educational Resources Commons. A specially developed quiz on migration and uncertainty engaged the general public, creating discussions around migration trends.
Insights for the long term
QuantMig’s findings highlight the importance of better data collection and migration scenario planning. The team hopes their work will inspire future research and policy initiatives to build on their approach, ensuring Europe remains prepared for migration challenges ahead. “Understanding migration isn’t about pinpointing exact numbers; it’s about being ready for what’s possible. We’ve helped lay the groundwork for a more informed and flexible response to future migration trends,” adds Bijak.
The project also published an open access book, designed to distil complex migration dynamics into an accessible format for policymakers and the public, ensuring their findings are available to the widest possible audience.
“There is one last ingredient to the project’s success,” notes Bijak, “and that is our use of open science. We made everything open by design from the outset, including the final book publication, and it is paying back handsomely.”