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Climate change will affect both Europe’s inland and marine waters. Considering the rate of global population growth and the accompanying increase in food demand, it is important to guarantee at least a degree of self-sufficiency for European consumers.
To minimise risks and maximise benefits, it is crucial that the seafood industry has access to information about just how climate change is likely to impact the stocks of the highest value fish species in European waters, as well as aquaculture productivity. By identifying mitigation measures at such an early stage, the industry’s capacity to adapt to potential climate change impacts should be greatly improved.
The EU-funded CERES project will help achieve these objectives. Models will be used to estimate future productivity and consequences for the sector based on projected changes in physical conditions in European inland and marine waters, and the related physiological and ecological responses of certain species.
The project is looking at over 50 % of all high-value fisheries and more than 90 % of all high-value aquaculture targets in European waters, including salmon, sea bass, mussels, oysters and tuna. Targeted sectors include fisheries and aquaculture, both inland and marine, across Europe, from the high-latitude oceans down to the Mediterranean.
The project will use both biological and conceptual models for its predictions, involving industry throughout the process. The models will integrate the expertise of producers, including farmers and fishermen, as well as data from public administration and other research sources, to ensure the accuracy of the predictions.
Throughout the modelling and mapping process, dialogue with industry will take place in the form of workshops, focus groups and interviews to ensure that CERES’ outputs are as relevant as possible to the actual situation on the ground — and in the water.