[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/9983\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EAdvanced forecasting to help millions on coasts and in cities cope with climate-change impacts \u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn the freezing reaches of Greenland, fissures in the ice sheet mark the battle lines in the fight against climate change. Greenhouse gases (GHG) are driving up global temperatures, melting the ice and pushing more and more icebergs to break away from glaciers and ice sheets. When the ice melts and the water enters the ocean, it adds to rising sea levels, putting millions of people who live in low lying coastal areas across the globe at risk.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe Greenland ice sheet stores the equivalent of seven metres of sea-level rise, while the Antarctic ice sheet contains about 60 metres, and their rate of melting depends on a variety of factors, including how quickly humans reduce GHG.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u2018It is more or less certain that we will not escape from a two-metre sea-level rise,\u2019 said Ga\u00ebl Durand, an ice-sheet specialist at the Universit\u00e9 Grenoble-Alpes in France. \u2018The question is now \u201cWhen will it happen?\u201d Will it be in 100 years or in 2000 (years)?\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThis question, of how much and when, is not a simple one \u2013\u2013 but the answer is vital for humanity to adapt to climate change. Unlike mitigation, which means reducing GHG emissions, climate adaptation aims at building resilience to the inevitable effects of a changing climate. But in order to adapt, decision makers need reliable information on what will happen to the climate in different regions.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThis is where climate predictions and projections from scientific research play a crucial role: predictions attempt to provide estimates in the short-term \u2014 for example, the average annual or seasonal temperature in five years; whereas projections extrapolate what could happen in the long-term, under different possible futures, determined by more or less ambitious mitigation responses.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EIn the EU-funded \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/869304\u0022\u003EPROTECT \u003C\/a\u003Eproject, Durand and colleagues are working on projections, to more accurately determine what will happen to the ice sheets in a world of rising temperatures and how this will impact communities living in coastal areas.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ECoastal users\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u2018We want to provide projections, but we want to be sure that these projections fit the needs of users, particularly coastal users,\u2019 said Durand.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EMore than 200 million Europeans live within 50\u2009km of the coastline, but rising sea levels will affect them all differently. \u2018Typically the needs are very different, depending on the use you have of coastal land,\u2019 explained Durand.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EUsing satellite and remote sensing data, as well as ice sheet data, the PROTECT project models how the ice sheet behaviour in Greenland and the Antarctic, as well as glaciers, will impact people on a regional and even local scale, with case studies in France, the Netherlands, Greenland, and the Maldives (in the Indian Ocean). \u2018We work with stakeholders and practitioners to better understand what type of projections they need,\u2019 Durand says.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003EWe want to provide projections, but we want to be sure that these projections fit the needs of users, particularly coastal users.\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EGa\u00ebl Durand, PROTECT\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003ECo-design with users is a feature of another EU-funded project, \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/776613\u0022\u003Ethe European Climate Prediction System (EUCP)\u003C\/a\u003E, this one\u0026nbsp;focusing on predictions.\u0026nbsp;In the past, \u2018it was often the climate scientist speaking and the user listening\u2019, said Jason Lowe, science lead for the project and the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/\u0022\u003EUK Met Office\u2019s\u003C\/a\u003E principal fellow and head of climate services for government. \u2018But we realised that the successful projects were when the user speaks more and the climate scientist listens and adapts to that.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EInnovation in knowledge production\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EFor example, users were asking, \u2018What does (climate change) mean for adaptation of cities? What does it mean for water availability? What does it mean for coastal protection?\u2019 Lowe said.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u2018You need different types of information to inform the solution.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe EUCP brought together users and organisations interested in climate predictions, as well as superusers which had specific problems to solve, to see how climate science could bolster their adaptation strategies.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EWith their needs in mind, the project developed new methods to create more accurate decade-timescale forecasts. EUCP contributed to the World Meteorological Organization\u2019s \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk\/wmolc\/\u0022\u003Edecadal forecasts\u003C\/a\u003E exchange and produced new data that informed the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/assessment-report\/ar6\/\u0022\u003Esixth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EFlash flooding\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u2018So if they\u2019re looking at flash flooding, if they\u2019re designing drainage systems, for instance, this data is available as a result of EUCP.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EWhile the project mostly focused on temperature and rainfall, it was also able to forecast storm tracks through the Caribbean and investigate wind droughts, which is when the wind speed is low, in France.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EHowever, beyond the successful predictions, it\u2019s the new methods that may become the project\u2019s most important legacy, said Lowe.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EOne new method was the ability to combine different global climate models, giving more accurate models greater weight than those which were less precise in a given scenario. \u2018We produced the first comparison of different methods to weight the projections,\u2019 Lowe said.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/eucp-project.github.io\/storyboards\/atlas\u0022\u003EEUCP Atlas of climate projections\u003C\/a\u003E provides pre-processed projections for Europe, and facilitates a comparison between them.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cb\u003EBridging predictions and projections\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe project team also developed a way to link predictions to longer-term projections. This method, allowing people to link decadal forecasts to longer-term climate projections, will also be one of the enduring legacies of the project, according to Lowe.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EWith more work to be done in decadal climate forecasting and projections, the EUCP will be succeeded by the ASPECT project (which stands for Adaptation-oriented Seamless Predictions of European ClimaTe), due to start next year. This continued effort is expected to improve our ability to forecast far into the future.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u2018We also think we can take the idea of joining predictions to projections, and move it from something that\u2019s academically interesting to something that can be used in climate services,\u2019 he said. Climate services provide climate information which allows people and organisations to organise their activities and adapt to climate change.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EEven if humanity cuts its emissions drastically, the climate is already changing and people around the world need to adapt. To do this, they need the vital and impartial information that projects such as PROTECT and EUCP provide.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EResearch in this article was funded via the EU. If you liked this article, please consider sharing it on social media.\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-bg-bluelightest tw-p-12 tw-my-12 tw--mx-16\u0022\u003E\n \u003Ch3 class=\u0022tw-font-sans tw-font-bold tw-text-blue tw-uppercase tw-text-lg tw-mb-8\u0022\u003EEU Mission: Adaptation to Climate Change\u003C\/h3\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-inline-block tw-w-1\/6 tw-h-1 tw-bg-blue tw-mb-8\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EWhether it\u0027s forest fires, floods or droughts, the consequences of climate change are already with us, and Europe is warming twice as fast as the world average.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EAdapting to climate change means taking action now to prepare for both the current effects of climate change and future ones.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThe Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change focuses on supporting EU regions, cities and local authorities in their efforts to build resilience against the impacts of climate change.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EFollow the link to read more about the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu\/funding\/funding-opportunities\/funding-programmes-and-open-calls\/horizon-europe\/eu-missions-horizon-europe\/adaptation-climate-change_en\u0022\u003EEU Mission: Adaptation to Climate Change\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWatch the video\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ciframe allow=\u0022accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\u0022 allowfullscreen=\u0022\u0022 frameborder=\u00220\u0022 height=\u0022315\u0022 src=\u0022https:\/\/europa.eu\/webtools\/crs\/iframe\/?oriurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fembed%2FAchpNSpVZ_0\u0022 title=\u0022YouTube video player\u0022 width=\u0022560\u0022\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003C\/textarea\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 class=\u0022ecl-help-block description\u0022\u003E\n Please copy the above code and embed it onto your website to republish.\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cinput autocomplete=\u0022off\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022form-wul5amuzuxcuxvkc11caxjmsghr1ddc4-cihz-xi0qw\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_build_id\u0022 value=\u0022form-wUl5AMuzUxCUxVKC11cAXjMSgHR1dDc4-cIHZ_xi0qw\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003Cinput data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_id\u0022 value=\u0022modal_form_example_modal_form\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003C\/form\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E","dialogOptions":{"width":"800","modal":true,"title":"Republish this content"}}]