[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/9106\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n      \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n      1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n      2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n      3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n      \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n      \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n        \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n  \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EQ\u0026A: Future pandemics are inevitable, but we can reduce the risk \u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EOur search for answers led us to a\u0026nbsp;scientist leading a Europe-wide system to detect future pandemic risks. Prof.\u0026nbsp;M\u00e1ire\u0026nbsp;Connolly said:\u0026nbsp;\u2018The most likely scenario for the next pandemic is a new strain of influenza like the H7N9 \u201cbird flu\u201d virus, or a newly identified\u0026nbsp;virus such as\u0026nbsp;another novel coronavirus.\u2019\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EIn an interview,\u0026nbsp;Prof. Connolly, who coordinates\u0026nbsp;the pandemic preparedness and response project \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/883285\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EPANDEM-2\u003C\/a\u003E under the EC\u2019s security research work programme, and follows the earlier \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/883285\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EPANDEM\u003C\/a\u003E project, explains why we\u2019re under threat of another pandemic.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n  \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003EThe most likely scenario for the next pandemic is a new strain of influenza like the H7N9 \u201cbird flu\u201d virus, or a newly identified virus such as another novel coronavirus\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n  \u003Cfooter\u003E\n    \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EProfessor M\u00e1ire Connolly, College of Medicine, Ryan Institute, NUI Galway, Republic of Ireland\u003C\/cite\u003E\n  \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Over the last 100 years the world has experienced 4 influenza pandemics, with an occurrence every 15-30 years\u0026nbsp;and\u0026nbsp;with an annual probability of between 3% to 7%,\u2019\u0026nbsp;For a new pandemic to happen, a new\u0026nbsp;virus\u0026nbsp;must emerge\u0026nbsp;to which the general population has little or no immunity,\u0026nbsp;must replicate\u0026nbsp;in humans and\u0026nbsp;transmit readily\u0026nbsp;from one person to another,\u0026nbsp;causing the disease\u0026nbsp;to spread across the globe.\u2019\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;said Prof. Connolly who teaches at NUI Galway\u2019s School of Medicine.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EDrawing on her\u0026nbsp;expertise in health security, disease surveillance, and emerging infectious diseases, as well as her\u0026nbsp;experience working on pandemic preparedness at the World Health Organization (\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.who.int\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EWHO\u003C\/a\u003E), Prof. Connolly\u0026nbsp;talks to us about the\u0026nbsp;possibility of a new pandemic\u0026nbsp;and how we can\u0026nbsp;guard\u0026nbsp;against it.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EEdited excerpts of the interview follow.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWhere could the next\u0026nbsp;pandemic\u0026nbsp;come from?\u202f\u003C\/strong\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003ELarge\u0026nbsp;intensive\u0026nbsp;livestock farms can result in \u201cspillover infections\u201d from animals to people\u0026nbsp;while greater movement of animals and animal products have also contributed to the threat from emerging diseases.\u0026nbsp;New strains of avian influenza circulate in wild birds across the world every year.\u0026nbsp;Intensive poultry\u0026nbsp;farming practices increase\u0026nbsp;the risk of\u0026nbsp;infection of domestic birds by wild birds and\u0026nbsp;subsequent\u0026nbsp;transmission to poultry workers.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EEncroachment into virgin forests for mining and timber can also expose\u0026nbsp;humans to pandemic prone pathogens, for example Ebola.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EOther sources include the\u0026nbsp;amplification of diseases in healthcare settings at the outset of a pandemic where infection prevention and control measures are inadequate,\u0026nbsp;increased spread in dense overcrowded cities, and\u0026nbsp;poor biosecurity measures in laboratories conducting research on high-risk pathogens leading to accidental release.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe advancement of technology and information on development of bioweapons is increasing the risk of deliberate release of a biological agent\u0026nbsp;as another possible scenario.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWhat about\u0026nbsp;climate change?\u0026nbsp;Can a warming climate increase\u0026nbsp;the likelihood of another pandemic?\u003C\/strong\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EClimate change is directly linked to a higher risk of a pandemic as rising temperatures\u0026nbsp;enable\u0026nbsp;mosquitoes, ticks,\u0026nbsp;and other\u0026nbsp;disease-carrying insects to proliferate, adapt to different seasons and invade new territories.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EFor example, flooding due to extreme weather creates new breeding grounds for mosquitoes, making the spread of dengue fever more likely. Melting permafrost can release pathogens from animal carcasses like the anthrax outbreak in the Yamal Peninsula, Siberia in 2016.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ESounds simple: protecting nature to prevent future outbreaks. Can you give us some examples about what this look like on the ground?\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EYes. Reducing\u0026nbsp;droughts or floods would reduce the risk of population displacement and the associated risk of disease outbreaks. Reducing the demand for meat and supporting more sustainable farming would lower greenhouse gas emissions and could decrease the risk of emerging infectious disease.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EAdditionally, monitoring of weather data to identify geographical areas at risk of disease emergence would support early warnings of future pandemics.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EConcerning the \u201cspillover infections\u201d you mentioned earlier, what can we do to\u0026nbsp;prepare?\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe health of the human population is closely related to animal health - this is underlined by the fact that over\u0026nbsp;the\u0026nbsp;last 30 years, 75% of emerging diseases have been zoonoses.\u0026nbsp;Therefore, effective preparedness and response at all levels is needed to protect the health of citizens and animals alike.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ECan we prevent\u0026nbsp;a new infection jumping the species barrier?\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EYes, we\u0026nbsp;can reduce the risk by\u0026nbsp;regulating the\u0026nbsp;trade in wild animals and bushmeat, particularly live animals in wet markets, and through early detection of spillover events in high-risk\u0026nbsp;areas.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EOther measures involve better regulation of poultry farming with rapid detection and reporting of sick birds, and the surveillance of wild birds. This would aid detection of avian influenza and reduce the risk of its introduction into domestic birds and poultry farms.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe spread of infection can also be prevented by rapid reporting of clusters of cases of unknown diseases in hospitals in countries at risk of disease emergence or \u201chot zones.\u201d Rapid reporting can also be used to quickly and effectively prompt implementation of containment measures where needed.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EMeanwhile, investments in information technology at Member State, EU and global levels\u0026nbsp;will\u0026nbsp;ensure access to accurate real-time data for pandemic response.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ECan you tell us more about the PANDEM-2 project and who will benefit?\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe\u0026nbsp;goal of PANDEM-2\u0026nbsp;is\u0026nbsp;to identify, map and integrate data from multiple sources into a coherent pandemic-management database and to develop an extensive dashboard for pandemic preparedness training and response.\u0026nbsp;The dashboard compiles\u0026nbsp;data\u0026nbsp;sources\u0026nbsp;on the social, economic and health-related impacts of\u0026nbsp;a\u0026nbsp;pandemic.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n  \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003EThe PANDEM-2 project will incorporate lessons learnt during the current COVID-19 pandemic and build international best practice into the areas of modelling, simulations, pandemic communications, contact tracing and training\u003C\/p\u003E\n  \u003Cfooter\u003E\n    \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EProfessor M\u00e1ire, Connolly College of Medicine, Ryan Institute, NUI Galway, Republic of Ireland\u003C\/cite\u003E\n  \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EWe are also creating\u0026nbsp;planning tools\u0026nbsp;and training materials,\u0026nbsp;as well as\u0026nbsp;scenarios based on novel influenza,\u0026nbsp;Ebola\u0026nbsp;and \u2018Disease X,\u2019 or novel coronavirus, for\u0026nbsp;use in\u0026nbsp;cross-border\u0026nbsp;pandemic response\u0026nbsp;exercises.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EWhile advances have been made in the areas\u0026nbsp;of diagnostics and therapeutics, there\u0026nbsp;remains a need\u0026nbsp;for\u0026nbsp;information management tools\u0026nbsp;and a common platform\u0026nbsp;for\u0026nbsp;cross-border collaboration on pandemic\u0026nbsp;preparedness and response.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe PANDEM-2 project will incorporate lessons learnt during the current COVID-19 pandemic\u0026nbsp;and build\u0026nbsp;international best practice into the areas of modelling, simulations, pandemic communications, contact tracing and training.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EPANDEM-2 will\u0026nbsp;help\u0026nbsp;pandemic managers in public health\u0026nbsp;agencies, first responders, laboratory technicians and hospital managers.\u0026nbsp;Advances in visual\u0026nbsp;and data\u0026nbsp;analytics will support pandemic managers in critical decision-making\u0026nbsp;and ultimately\u0026nbsp;benefit EU citizens\u0026nbsp;by\u0026nbsp;reducing the impact of future pandemics.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWhat\u0026nbsp;would you highlight as\u0026nbsp;the key results for PANDEM and PANDEM-2?\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EOur research has shown\u0026nbsp;the importance of trust, leadership,\u0026nbsp;and\u0026nbsp;counteracting disinformation and misinformation. What is required is a\u0026nbsp;two-way\u0026nbsp;communication with the public\u0026nbsp;with\u0026nbsp;access to accurate real time data\u0026nbsp;and\u0026nbsp;social media\u0026nbsp;analysis\u0026nbsp;to measure public sentiment and support for pandemic\u0026nbsp;control measures.\u0026nbsp;The project will ultimately provide the tools to effectively support this requirement in the future.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EAdvances in diagnostics and next generation sequencing data\u0026nbsp;will help\u0026nbsp;to determine the spread and transmission chains of pandemic prone pathogens and\u0026nbsp;guide future pandemic control measures. The project\u2019s pandemic management database and comprehensive dashboard will help to coordinate this information into an accessible source.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWhat is the\u0026nbsp;latest news from\u0026nbsp;your project?\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EMost recently, PANDEM-2 has been fortunate to collaborate with leading organisations from around the world to further advance the project. We are working with colleagues from\u0026nbsp;the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EECDC\u003C\/a\u003E)\u0026nbsp;on contact tracing, and\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.who.int\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EWHO\u003C\/a\u003E colleagues are providing input on our findings relating to pandemic communications and the\u0026nbsp;infodemic.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe\u0026nbsp;Defence\u0026nbsp;Forces in Ireland are also providing valuable insights into the role of\u0026nbsp;the military in future pandemic responses in areas such as contact tracing, testing, vaccination rollout, logistics and critical infrastructure protection.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe research in this article was funded by the EU. If you liked this article, please consider sharing it on social media.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-bg-bluelightest tw-p-12 tw-my-12 tw--mx-16\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Ch3 class=\u0022tw-font-sans tw-font-bold tw-text-blue tw-uppercase tw-text-lg tw-mb-8\u0022\u003EThe Health Emergency preparedness and Response Authority\u003C\/h3\u003E\n  \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-inline-block tw-w-1\/6 tw-h-1 tw-bg-blue tw-mb-8\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\n  \u003Cp\u003EWe must be ready for the next health crisis. That is why the European Union has established the Health Emergency preparedness and Response Authority (\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/commission\/presscorner\/detail\/en\/ip_21_4672\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EHERA\u003C\/a\u003E), to detect biological and other health threats soon after they emerge, evaluate their impacts and identify potential counter measures. HERA will have dedicated capacities for horizon scanning and foresight, and will contribute to reinforcing global epidemic surveillance. HERA will therefore be a crucial centrepiece for a strong \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/info\/strategy\/priorities-2019-2024\/promoting-our-european-way-life\/european-health-union_en\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EEuropean Health Union\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThe EU\u2019s research and innovation framework programmes have funded a variety of \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/info\/research-and-innovation\/research-area\/health-research-and-innovation\/coronavirus-research-and-innovation\/preparedness-and-response_en\u0022\u003Eresearch projects\u003C\/a\u003E working on preparedness and response to epidemics, including the PANDEM and PANDEM-2 projects. This work will be continued under the new programme, \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/info\/research-and-innovation\/funding\/funding-opportunities\/funding-programmes-and-open-calls\/horizon-europe_en\u0022\u003EHorizon Europe\u003C\/a\u003E, under which the new \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/info\/files\/european-partnership-pandemic-preparedness_en\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EEuropean Partnership on Pandemic Preparedness\u003C\/a\u003E will be funded.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003C\/textarea\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n            \u003Cdiv id=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 class=\u0022ecl-help-block description\u0022\u003E\n      Please copy the above code and embed it onto your website to republish.\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cinput autocomplete=\u0022off\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022form-k1jgk6e2ltus72t-lv7stxifzjwxygosxx-lued8pxu\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_build_id\u0022 value=\u0022form-k1jgK6E2Ltus72T-LV7STxIfzjWXygosXx-LUeD8pxU\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003Cinput data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_id\u0022 value=\u0022modal_form_example_modal_form\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003C\/form\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E","dialogOptions":{"width":"800","modal":true,"title":"Republish this content"}}]