[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/8953\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EFocal point for climate change is at the top of our world, and agenda\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFragile and exposed to climate change, the Arctic is warming three times faster than the rest of the planet. As the frozen ground melts, carbon dioxide and methane trapped within it are released into the atmosphere, further contributing to global warming.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMichael Mann, the EU\u2019s Special Envoy for the Arctic, describes the current environmental situation in the Arctic as extremely serious. He warns: \u2018It\u2019s just getting worse and worse.\u2019\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003EThe Arctic is the main suspect for larger changes in conditions in the northern hemisphere\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EDr Steffen Olsen, climate researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute in Copenhagen\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe consequences are being felt elsewhere. Extreme events in Europe, such as the unusually heavy snowfall in Greece and Spain last winter, is thought to be linked to warming in the northernmost regions.\u0026nbsp; \u2018The Arctic is the main suspect for larger changes in conditions in the northern hemisphere,\u2019 said Dr Steffen Olsen, a climate researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute in Copenhagen.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESince the Arctic is the focal point for global climate change, being able to better forecast Arctic warming could help mitigate its impact, both in the Arctic and elsewhere.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe EU is preparing to adapt to the rapid changes that the Arctic is experiencing. One of the goals of the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/info\/research-and-innovation\/funding\/funding-opportunities\/funding-programmes-and-open-calls\/horizon-europe\/missions-horizon-europe_en\u0022\u003EEU Missions\u003C\/a\u003E, namely \u2018Adaptation to Climate Change\u2019, is to provide new strategies and solutions and empower communities to lead the societal transformation. The EU Mission \u2018Restore our ocean and waters by 2030\u2019 will deploy innovative solutions at basin-scale (sea basin and river basin) through Mission \u2018lighthouses\u2019 which will each lead on one of the Mission objectives. One of the lighthouse initiatives covering the Atlantic and Arctic sea basin, leads on the Mission objective to protect and restore marine ecosystems and biodiversity.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe new EU Arctic policy is also on the horizon to address new challenges and opportunities.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWhy aren\u2019t climate models better at predicting Arctic warming?\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EExisting climate models typically describe the physics of large-scale processes in the atmosphere and the ocean, such as atmospheric jet streams or how ice is retreating. However, many small-scale phenomena are not well represented. This is particularly true of predictions for the Arctic, which lack accuracy. \u2018Apart from uncertainties in representing different aspects of the atmosphere, we also see that the pathways of ocean currents from the North Atlantic to the Arctic are poorly represented in our model systems,\u2019 Dr Olsen said.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETogether with his colleagues in the Horizon 2020 funded \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/727852\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EBlue-Action project\u003C\/a\u003E, Dr Olsen aims to improve how the climate in the northern hemisphere, including the Arctic, is modelled and predicted. They focused on variability from one year to the next and between decades. Predictions at these mid-range timescales are often lacking, despite their potential to reveal significant details about climatic changes. \u2018That may mean that you have a number of years where conditions don\u0027t follow the more linear track of (predicted) scenarios,\u2019 explained Dr Olsen. \u2018A warming tendency can be reversed for some years, for example.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMembers of the Blue-Action team first conducted several complex experiments where they were able to identify strengths and deficiencies in current climate models. Then, they were able to make improvements, for example by incorporating additional data such as the effect of cracks in Arctic sea ice on heat flux. They also figured out how to predict the key components contributing to atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic Ocean. These factors are known to have a major effect on winter conditions in Europe.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cfigure role=\u0022group\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cimg alt=\u0022\u00a9 Steffen M. Olsen, Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark - Arctic monitoring setup on sea ice NW Greenland 2021\u0022 data-entity-type=\u0022file\u0022 data-entity-uuid=\u0022162f5f8d-cdcd-4c96-8838-69f16794b9ad\u0022 src=\u0022\/sites\/default\/files\/hm\/IMCEUpload\/sea_ice_nw_greenland_2021.png\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cfigcaption class=\u0022tw-italic tw-mb-4\u0022\u003E\u00a9 Steffen M. Olsen, Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark - Arctic monitoring setup on sea ice NW Greenland 2021\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\n\u003C\/figure\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EFrom forecasting fish stocks to heat wave early warning\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003EIt\u2019s the first time you will see predictions of fish stocks years in advance, based on climate model predictions\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EDr Steffen Olsen, climate researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute in Copenhagen.\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThese enhanced climate models were used to develop new prediction systems. The team developed a system that can forecast certain fish stocks in the North Atlantic Ocean over a 10-year period, for example, changes such as surface water temperature fluctuations play a role in when fish will migrate and reproduce. \u2018It\u2019s the first time you will see predictions of fish stocks years in advance, based on climate model predictions,\u2019 said Dr Olsen.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThey also created an early warning system for European regions to help reduce the impact of heat waves on human health, which have caused more fatalities on the continent than any other extreme weather event in recent decades. By combining their new climate models with heat mortality data from 16 countries, the system allows for preventative measures to be taken if high temperatures are expected. \u201cThat has been one very promising line of service development,\u201d said Dr Olsen.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EMaking the best use of good observations\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003EYou need observations in the right place and once you have good observations, you need to make best use of them\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EDr Thomas Jung, head of the Climate Dynamics section at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven, Germany\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBetter use of existing monitoring systems could also help improve climate models. Dr Thomas Jung, head of the Climate Dynamics section at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven, Germany and his colleagues, were also aiming to improve climate predictions in the Arctic as part of the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/727862\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EAPPLICATE project\u003C\/a\u003E, partly by investigating the role of observations. \u2018You need observations in the right place and once you have good observations, you need to make best use of them,\u2019 said Dr Jung.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe team \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/qj.3628\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eperformed experiments where they removed certain types of observations from climate models of the Arctic to see how this would affect forecasts\u003C\/a\u003E. They found that microwave observations from satellites, which can indicate temperature and moisture levels, had the most significant impact on medium-term forecasts.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe project also aimed to develop more detailed and accurate medium-range climate models for the Arctic that could be put to practical use. To ensure they would be widely adopted they partnered with modelling experts from weather prediction centres in Europe. Since there are a few Arctic countries on the continent, such as Norway, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden and Finland, more advanced weather predictions would benefit local policymakers, businesses and people so that they can be better prepared for upcoming changes.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cfigure role=\u0022group\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cimg alt=\u0022\u00a9 Peter Avike, Qillaq Danielsen - Arctic monitoring on sea-ice with Inuit hunters NW Greenland 2021\u0022 data-entity-type=\u0022file\u0022 data-entity-uuid=\u00224a48dbfe-b2d1-4017-9180-7f0fd9925c8a\u0022 src=\u0022\/sites\/default\/files\/hm\/IMCEUpload\/sea-ice_with_inuit_hunters_nw_greenland_2021.png\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cfigcaption class=\u0022tw-italic tw-mb-4\u0022\u003E\u00a9 Peter Avike, Qillaq Danielsen - Arctic monitoring on sea-ice with Inuit hunters NW Greenland 2021\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\n\u003C\/figure\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EArctic climate\u2019s link with lower latitudes\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETo figure out how climate change in the Arctic impacts regions further south, the scientists conducted experiments with multiple climate models. They focused on understanding the physical mechanisms through which warming in the Arctic would affect climate and weather in lower latitudes.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe team\u2019s results suggest that the link between climate change in the Arctic and extreme weather events in Europe and North America might be overestimated. \u2018There is a link; there\u0027s no doubt about this,\u2019 noted Dr Jung. \u2018But it\u0027s probably not as large as suggested by observations.\u2019\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThere is another link between Arctic warming and what happens in lower latitudes, too. Climatic changes in polar regions aren\u2019t primarily caused by its inhabitants, obviously, but rather by emissions produced by the rest of the world. \u2018The problem has to be dealt with more globally,\u2019 said Mann.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EAn ambitious climate action plan for the Arctic\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn an attempt to do just this, the European Union (EU) \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/eeas.europa.eu\/headquarters\/headquarters-homepage\/20956\/arctic-short-introduction_en_en\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EArctic policy\u003C\/a\u003E aims to tackle climate change effects in the region as well as promote sustainable development and international cooperation. Tackling permafrost thaw in the Arctic is one of the issues that will be addressed when the policy is updated this month. Satellites that are part of the EU\u2019s \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.copernicus.eu\/en\/news\/news\/observer-how-does-copernicus-help-understand-magnitude-permafrost-thawing-and-its-impacts\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003ECopernicus programme\u003C\/a\u003E, for example, can help track changes, since they are able to measure the thickness of frozen ground. \u2018I think Copernicus will play a major role,\u2019 said Mann.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe new policy will also target black carbon \u2013 or soot. It attracts sunlight and heat when deposited on snow and ice in the Arctic, contributing to warming. However, \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/eua-bca.amap.no\/news\/2020\/new-report-measuring-black-carbon-in-the-arctic-needs-to-become-a-higher-priority\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eit is currently hard to follow changes in these emissions: there are few monitoring sites\u003C\/a\u003E as well as large areas where no observations are made. \u2018Establishing monitoring stations has to be the starting point,\u2019 noted Mann. \u2018Hopefully the EU can give that a helping hand.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe research in this article was funded by the EU. 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