[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/7376\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EMediterranean wineries are in a climate hotspot. Climatologists are helping them adapt \u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETo help the region\u2019s agricultural producers cope with shifting weather patterns, and make strategic decisions now for the future, scientists are researching new growing techniques, and creating climate forecasts.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe Mediterranean Basin \u2013 comprising countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea \u2013 is a \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.medecc.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Infografic_ENG.pdf\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eclimate hotspot\u003C\/a\u003E. It is experiencing faster than average \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/jrc\/en\/science-update\/worrying-effects-accelerating-climate-change-mediterranean-basin\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Erises in temperature\u003C\/a\u003E and may suffer major \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/clim\/33\/14\/JCLI-D-19-0910.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Elosses of rainfall\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;in future decades.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EWine makers are among those already feeling the effects.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Climate change is not only a thing of the future it is happening now. We see an increase of mean temperatures, and this already has an impact on grape growing,\u2019 said Josep Maria Sol\u00e9 Tasias, coordinator of \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/730253\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EVISCA\u003C\/a\u003E, a project developing forecasts and pruning techniques to help vineyards adapt to climate change.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EOne impact is that higher temperatures make grapes ripen too early, before their aromas have had a chance to fully develop. \u2018That is something the wineries are very worried about,\u2019 said Sol\u00e9 Tasias who is a civil engineer at Meteosim SL, a Spanish company offering meteorological services.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EIn southwestern France, the Bordeaux region\u2019s famous Merlot and Sauvignon blanc grapes are expected to be \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-4395\/9\/9\/514\/htm\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Evictims of climate change\u003C\/a\u003E, so wine makers there are \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.npr.org\/sections\/thesalt\/2019\/11\/05\/773097167\/climate-change-is-disrupting-centuries-old-methods-of-winemaking-in-france?t=1613677207160\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Etesting more resilient grape varieties\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;from southern and eastern Europe.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EAnother solution is to find plots of land in more northern or elevated cooler locations to plant for the future.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EBut small wineries will find it difficult to make such large investments, says Sol\u00e9 Tasias. So VISCA has been testing some innovative farming techniques to see if they can minimise the damage.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThese include \u2018crop forcing\u2019, which involves pruning vines so the grapes mature later in the growing season once temperatures have dropped. But deciding when to prune is difficult - too early or too late in the growing season would impact the harvest.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EForecasts\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EVISCA has developed seasonal forecasts which are helping farmers assess the best times to apply these techniques. They use detailed data about the vineyard \u2013 including location, soil type, and grape variety \u2013 to estimate when vines will produce buds or grapes will ripen, as well as predicting temperatures and rainfall.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EBut unlike short-term weather forecasts which can accurately predict whether there will be a frost or warm sunshine, seasonal forecasts of up to six months ahead are much less certain. Knowing how to use them for decision-making is complex, says Sol\u00e9 Tasias.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Farmers at the moment don\u2019t know exactly how to use them \u2013 they are used to making decisions in the short-term,\u2019 said Sol\u00e9 Tasias.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EA seasonal forecast could for example say there is 60% probability there will be a particularly warm summer. If a farmer delays the ripening of their grapes based on this assumption, they may lose money if the summer turns out to be normal.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Farmers have to understand that their decision can result in losses,\u2019 said Sol\u00e9 Tasias.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003ETo help with this, VISCA has worked with some wineries to create a list of actions based on each short-term and seasonal forecast \u2013 for example, buy more chemicals to deal with a possible spike in pest numbers, or prune the vines to delay the grape harvest \u2013 and spell out the financial risks associated with each option.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe options and risks will be tailored to each vineyard or winery. And the more information the\u0026nbsp;researchers have about the vineyard, the better they can forecast, they say.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003E\u2018Climate change is not only a thing of the future \u2013 it is happening now.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EJosep Maria Sol\u00e9 Tasias, Meteosim\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EUnpredictability\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003ELong-term climate forecasting is particularly difficult in the Mediterranean region, says Dr Alessandro Dell\u2019Aquila, co-coordinator of the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/776467\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EMED-GOLD project\u003C\/a\u003E, which is developing climate services for pasta, olive oil and wine producers.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u2018It has an intrinsic unpredictability because there is a lot of noise due to large-scale (atmospheric) movements and perturbations,\u2019 said Dr Dell\u2019Aquila, who is a climatologist at the Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA).\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe tropics, by contrast, are more stable, which means that seasonal forecasts for coffee, tea, maize and other crops in parts of Africa and South America could be more accurate.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EBut seasonal forecasts will still be vital for Mediterranean farmers despite their uncertainty, says Dr Dell\u2019Aquila.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe longer-term impacts of climate change on the Mediterranean are likely to be severe.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u2018The Mediterranean could look very different in future decades. We may have completely different species of animals or insects that could arrive from the tropics, and we could experience loss of local biodiversity,\u2019 said Dr Dell\u2019Aquila.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EWe could also have less water available, including for agricultural purposes, he says. \u2018And the region may experience a higher number of (severe) heatwaves.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003ESome crops will need to be grown on higher ground or further north where the climate will be cooler and wetter. More field irrigation will be needed and, in the case of grapes, different varieties will have to be grown.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EParts of Europe may open up for wine and olive oil production for the first time, while other areas may see a collapse.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u2018There are some ideas of moving olive trees northward to new growing regions. And parts of the Mediterranean \u2013 for example, north Africa \u2013 could become too hot for olive groves.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003ESimilarly, while wine production has recently expanded in the UK and Denmark, certain southern Italian wines may become extremely rare within the next decade, Dr Dell\u2019Aquila says.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ESupport\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EEU policy needs to change to support producers adapting to climate change, he says. Rules that regulate the composition of wines, for example, could be changed to allow producers to use different varieties of grape \u2013 even grapes from different regions \u2013 without changing the name of the wine. \u2018This could be very important for consumers because they want to go to the supermarket and find a (Chianti), and the name of this wine is clearly defined in some EU rules.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EIn the meantime, producers need to act now. \u2018Wine-makers should start thinking now where they can buy new plots of land and start planting grapes as an investment for the next 10 or 20 years,\u2019 said Dr Dell\u2019Aquila.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThis article first appeared in Horizon Magazine in September 2021.\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThe research in this article was funded by the EU.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003EIf you liked this article, please consider sharing it on social media.\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022moreinfoblock\u0022\u003E\n \u003Ch3\u003EThe issue\u003C\/h3\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EAs the climate changes, we need to prepare for its impacts and take action to minimise the damage to our environment, society and economy. This is known as climate adaptation.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EOn 24 February 2021, the EU published its climate adaptation strategy which sets out how to make Europe more climate resilient and protect people from the impacts of climate change, such as heatwaves and flooding. Follow the link for more information on the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/commission\/presscorner\/detail\/en\/ip_21_663\u0022\u003EEU strategy on adaptation to climate change\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003C\/textarea\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 class=\u0022ecl-help-block description\u0022\u003E\n Please copy the above code and embed it onto your website to republish.\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cinput autocomplete=\u0022off\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022form-1j0jrwagkcuvqctznfoz-qaifkbqmfpwqy1mae2yfvo\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_build_id\u0022 value=\u0022form-1j0jRWagkCuvqCtzNfOZ-QaIfkbqMFpwqY1MAe2YFVo\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003Cinput data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_id\u0022 value=\u0022modal_form_example_modal_form\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003C\/form\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E","dialogOptions":{"width":"800","modal":true,"title":"Republish this content"}}]