[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/7356\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EUnravelling the when, where and how of volcanic eruptions\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EDome-building volcanoes, which are frequently active, are among the most dangerous types of volcanoes \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s00445-015-0919-x\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003Esince they are known for their explosive activity\u003C\/a\u003E. This type of volcano often erupts by first quietly producing a dome-shaped extrusion of thick lava at its summit which is too viscous to flow. When it eventually becomes destabilised, it breaks off and produces fast-moving currents of hot gas, solidified lava pieces and volcanic ash, called pyroclastic clouds, that flow down the sides of the volcano at the speed of a fast train.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018The hazards associated with them can be very spontaneous and hard to predict,\u2019 said \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.gfz-potsdam.de\/staff\/thomas-walter\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003EProfessor Thomas Walter\u003C\/a\u003E, a professor of volcanology and geohazards at the University of Potsdam in Germany. \u2018That\u2019s why it\u2019s so important to understand this phenomenon of lava domes.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ELittle is known about the behaviour of lava domes, partly because there isn\u2019t much data available. Prof. Walter and his colleagues want to better understand how they form, whether they can vary significantly in shape and what their internal structure is like. Over the last five years, through a project called \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/646858\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003EVOLCAPSE\u003C\/a\u003E, they have been using innovative techniques to monitor lava domes by using high resolution radar data captured by satellites as well as close-up views from cameras set up near volcanoes.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Pixel by pixel, we could determine how the shape, morphology and structure of these lava domes changed,\u2019 said Prof. Walter. \u2018We compared (the webcam images) to satellite radar observations.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cfigure role=\u0022group\u0022 class=\u0022@alignleft@\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cimg alt=\u0022The VOLCAPSE project monitors a few dome-building volcanoes around the world using various techniques to better understand this explosive type of volcano. Image credit - Thomas Walter\/VOLCAPSE\u0022 height=\u00223033\u0022 src=\u0022\/research-and-innovation\/sites\/default\/files\/hm\/IMCEUpload\/mewiththermalcamerawatchingmerapidome.jpg\u0022 title=\u0022The VOLCAPSE project monitors a few dome-building volcanoes around the world using various techniques to better understand this explosive type of volcano. Image credit - Thomas Walter\/VOLCAPSE\u0022 width=\u00224579\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cfigcaption class=\u0022tw-italic tw-mb-4\u0022\u003EThe VOLCAPSE project monitors a few dome-building volcanoes around the world using various techniques to better understand this explosive type of volcano. Image credit - Thomas Walter\/VOLCAPSE\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\n\u003C\/figure\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ETime-lapse\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe project focussed on a few dome-building volcanoes such as Colima in Mexico, Mount Merapi in Indonesia, Bezymianny in Russia, and Mount Lascar and Lastarria in Chile. It partly involved visiting them and installing instruments such as time-lapse cameras powered by solar panels that could be controlled remotely. If a lava dome started to form, for example, the team could tweak the settings so that it captured higher resolution images more often.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EDue to high altitudes and harsh weather conditions, setting up the cameras was more challenging than expected. \u2018It was a sharp learning curve, but also trial and error, because nobody could tell us what to expect at these volcanoes since it was never done before,\u2019 said Prof. Walter.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EDuring their visits, the team also used drones. These would fly over a lava dome and capture high resolution images from different perspectives, which could be used to create detailed 3D models. Temperature and gas sensors on the drones provided additional information.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EProf. Walter and his colleagues used the data to create computer simulations, such as how the growth of lava domes changes from eruption to eruption. They found that new lava domes don\u2019t always form in the same location: a lava dome may form at the summit of a volcano during one eruption while the next time it builds up on one of its flanks. The team was puzzled, since a conduit inside a volcano brings magma to the surface during an eruption, which would mean that it changes its orientation between one eruption and the next. \u2018That was very surprising for us,\u2019 said Prof. Walter.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003E\u2018Pixel by pixel, we could determine how the shape, morphology and structure of these lava domes changed.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EProfessor Thomas Walter, University of Potsdam, Germany\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EStress field\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThey were able to explain how this happens by examining the distribution of internal forces \u2013 or stress field - in a volcano. When magma is expelled during an eruption, it changes how the forces are distributed inside and causes a reorientation of the conduit.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe team also found that there was a systematic pattern to how the stress field changed, meaning that by studying the position of lava domes they could estimate where they had formed in the past and where they would appear in the future. This could help determine which areas near a volcano are likely to be most affected by eruptions yet to come. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018This is a very cool result for predictive research if you want to understand where the lava dome is going to extrude (or collapse) from in the future,\u2019 he said.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cfigure role=\u0022group\u0022 class=\u0022@alignleft@\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cimg alt=\u0022Fumaroles are a telltale sign of an active volcano, releasing volcanic gases into the atmosphere. Image credit - Thomas Walter\/VOLCAPSE\u0022 height=\u00223648\u0022 src=\u0022\/research-and-innovation\/sites\/default\/files\/hm\/IMCEUpload\/fumarole_field_chile.jpg\u0022 title=\u0022Fumaroles are a telltale sign of an active volcano, releasing volcanic gases into the atmosphere. Image credit - Thomas Walter\/VOLCAPSE\u0022 width=\u00225472\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cfigcaption class=\u0022tw-italic tw-mb-4\u0022\u003EFumaroles are a telltale sign of an active volcano, releasing volcanic gases into the atmosphere. Image credit - Thomas Walter\/VOLCAPSE\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\n\u003C\/figure\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EKnowing where a volcano will erupt from is one thing, but knowing when it will do so is a different matter and the physical factors that govern this are also not well understood. Although there is a relationship between how often eruptions occur and their size, with big eruptions occurring very rarely compared to smaller ones, a lack of reliable data makes it hard to examine the processes that control eruption frequency and magnitude.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018When you go back in the geological record, (the traces of) many eruptions disappear because of erosion,\u2019 said\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.unige.ch\/sciences\/terre\/en\/people\/deste\/professors\/luca-caricchi\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003E Professor Luca Caricchi\u003C\/a\u003E, a professor of petrology and volcanology at the University of Geneva in Switzerland.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFurthermore, it\u2019s not possible to access these processes directly since they occur deep down beneath a volcano, at depths of 5 to 60 kilometres. Measuring the chemistry and textures of magma expelled during an eruption can provide some clues about the internal processes that led to the event. And magma chambers can sometimes be investigated when they pop up at the surface of the Earth due to tectonic processes. Extracting information from specific time periods is still difficult though since the \u2018picture\u2019 you get is like a movie where all the frames are collapsed into a single shot. \u2018It\u2019s complicated to retrieve the evolution in time \u2013 what really happened during the movie,\u2019 said Prof. Caricchi.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EProf. Caricchi and his colleagues are using a novel approach to forecast the recurrence rate of eruptions. Previous predictions were typically based on statistical analyses of the geological records of a volcano. But through a project called \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/677493\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003EFEVER\u003C\/a\u003E the team is aiming to combine this method with physical modelling of the processes responsible for the frequency and size of eruptions. A similar approach has been used to estimate when earthquakes and floods will occur again.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EUsing physical models should especially be useful to make predictions for volcanoes where there is little data available. \u2018To extrapolate our findings from a place where we know a lot, like in Japan, you need a physical model that tells you why the frequency-magnitude relationship changes,\u2019 said Prof. Caricchi.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETo create their model, the team have incorporated variables that affect pressure in the magma reservoir or the rate of accumulation of magma at depth below the volcano. The viscosity of the crust under the volcano and the size of the magma reservoir, for example, play a role. They have performed over a million simulations using all the possible combinations of values that can occur. The relationship between frequency and magnitude they obtained from their model was similar to what was estimated by using volcanic records so they think they were able to capture the fundamental processes involved.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018It\u2019s sort of a fight between the amount of magma and the properties of the crust,\u2019 said Prof. Caricchi. \u2018They are the two big players that fight each other to finally lead to this relationship.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cfigure role=\u0022group\u0022 class=\u0022@alignleft@\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cimg alt=\u0022Models that can better predict future eruptions could protect the lives of the 1 billion people who live close to volcanoes. Image credit - Thomas Walter\/VOLCAPSE\u0022 height=\u00222433\u0022 src=\u0022\/research-and-innovation\/sites\/default\/files\/hm\/IMCEUpload\/domemeasurementsatmerapi.jpg\u0022 title=\u0022Models that can better predict future eruptions could protect the lives of the 1 billion people who live close to volcanoes. Image credit - Thomas Walter\/VOLCAPSE\u0022 width=\u00223673\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cfigcaption class=\u0022tw-italic tw-mb-4\u0022\u003EModels that can better predict future eruptions could protect the lives of the 1 billion people who live close to volcanoes. Image credit - Thomas Walter\/VOLCAPSE\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\n\u003C\/figure\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ETectonic plates\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHowever, the team also found that the relationship between the size and frequency of changes across volcanoes in different regions. Prof. Caricchi thinks this is due to differences in the geometry of tectonic plates in each area. \u2018We can see that the rate at which a plate subducts below another, and also the angle of subduction, seem to play an important role in defining the frequency and magnitude of a resulting eruption,\u2019 he said. The team is now starting to incorporate this new information into their model.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBeing able to predict the frequency and magnitude of future eruptions using a model could help better assess hazards. In Japan, for example, one of the countries with the most active volcanoes, knowing the probability of future eruptions of various sizes is important when deciding where to build infrastructure such as nuclear power plants.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIt\u2019s also invaluable in densely populated areas, such as in Mexico City, which is surrounded by active volcanoes, including Nevado de Toluca. Prof. Caricchi and his colleagues studied this volcano, which hasn\u2019t erupted for about 3,000 years. They found that once magmatic activity restarts, it would take about 10 years before a large eruption could potentially occur. This knowledge would prevent Mexico City from being evacuated if initial signs of activity are spotted.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Once the activity restarts, you know you have ten years to follow the evolution of the situation,\u2019 said Prof. Caricchi. \u2018(People) will now know a little bit more about what to expect.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThe research in this article was funded by the EU\u0027s European Research Council. 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