[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/7234\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EQ\u0026A: China and Europe likely to see different effect of coronavirus-related air pollution drop\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe study, which is not peer reviewed, was part of a project called \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/820655\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003EEXHAUSTION\u003C\/a\u003E, which is examining how heat and air pollution affects public health, considering global warming and anticipated temperature rises in Europe.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EYou found that between 50,000 and 100,000 lives could be spared if pollution levels in China remain as low as they are now for a year. How did you come up with this figure?\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENo one gets air pollution on their death certificate, as they do with the coronavirus. But a large body of evidence, based on epidemiological studies across the world, tells us that air pollution increases death and disease rates. Studies find particularly large effects on respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe 50,000-100,000 avoided deaths figure (that we came up with in this first calculation) is under the assumption that the reduction would last for a year. We wanted to see what would happen if we assumed that ambient air pollution levels stay 20-30% below the normal average (the level reported during the lockdown) for a full year.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWe already had a (published) model set up that we were using to estimate the initial mortality from specific diseases in China. The point (of the calculation of avoided deaths) was to remind us that the air pollution is killing people every day, all across the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) says that there is a total of \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www9.who.int\/airpollution\/ambient\/en\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003E4.2 million deaths annually\u003C\/a\u003E from (outdoor) air pollution.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWe already know that air pollution levels probably will not stay at the lockdown level now as the economy is ramping up again in China. However, even a 2- to 3-month reduction in air pollution due to the lockdown measures must have had an impact on mortality. Exactly how much is hard to tell (at the moment).\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ECould air pollution worsen the effect of coronavirus? \u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn my mind that is not unlikely, but the science is still evolving here so we don\u2019t know for sure. When you live in a very polluted region, your lungs get compromised, you get different diseases. (This means) your health status is not as good as it would have been if you lived in a clean area. In 2003 after the SARS outbreak in China, there was a \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/ehjournal.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/1476-069X-2-15\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003Estudy\u003C\/a\u003E which indicated that populations that live in very polluted areas seemed to be more susceptible for getting the severe impacts of the SARS virus at that time. It seemed that those who were affected by pollution had a higher fatality risk. Recently, studies (on coronavirus) in \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.sciencedaily.com\/releases\/2020\/04\/200406100824.htm\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003EItaly\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.05.20054502v1\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003Ethe US\u003C\/a\u003E indicate similar results.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWe are seeing a drop in air pollution in Europe too. Do you think that we will see the same positive impacts as China? \u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor China, particulate matter pollution is extremely high, far above the (World Health Organization air quality) guidelines. In Europe we have a bigger problem with NO\u003Csub\u003E2\u003C\/sub\u003E (nitrogen dioxide), and to some extent ozone, and the impacts might be different than from particulate pollution. \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.eea.europa.eu\/highlights\/air-pollution-goes-down-as\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003EA report from the European Environment Agency\u003C\/a\u003E looked at how the NOx (nitrous oxide) levels are affected by the coronavirus lockdown measures and found that many of the large European cities have had a 20%-50% reduction in NO\u003Csub\u003E2 \u003C\/sub\u003Elevels.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EGenerally, particulate air pollution is assumed to be the most health damaging. Studies find smaller impacts on mortality of NO\u003Csub\u003E2\u003C\/sub\u003E. There are, however, other important impacts of NO\u003Csub\u003E2\u003C\/sub\u003E \u2013 for instance, asthmatics seem to be particularly vulnerable to NO\u003Csub\u003E2\u003C\/sub\u003E pollution. The large reductions in NO\u003Csub\u003E2\u003C\/sub\u003E concentrations in Europe will likely lead to fewer asthma related emergency department and hospital admissions.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EI have recently been involved in a study led by the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), with partners at Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (in Mainz, Germany), where we look into the global health effects associated with the short-term reductions in PM2.5, ozone, and NO\u003Csub\u003E2\u003C\/sub\u003E, using exposure-response relationships from previous studies. When that is out, we will have some estimates (of the exact impact).\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003E\u2018No one gets air pollution on their death certificate, as they do with the coronavirus.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EDr Kristin Aunan, Centre for International Climate Research (Cicero), Norway \u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWhy the differences in air pollution types between Europe and China? \u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBasically the environmental regulations that we have had in Europe for many years \u2013 the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.eea.europa.eu\/themes\/air\/air-pollution-sources-1\/national-emission-ceilings\/national-emission-ceilings-directive\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003ENational Emissions Ceilings Directive\u003C\/a\u003E, the regulation of industries (for example) \u2013 means that we have been able to clean up to a large extent. Of course, we are fewer people also, but still environmental regulation is the core word here.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAir quality standards, together with a well-developed monitoring system, have been important factors driving down air pollution concentrations in Europe and in the US as well. We still have issues and there\u2019s still a long way to go to get really down to clean air, but we have done a lot.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHowever, the EU\u2019s \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/environment\/air\/quality\/standards.htm\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003EAir Quality Standards\u003C\/a\u003E for PM2.5 is still set above the health-based \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.who.int\/airpollution\/guidelines\/en\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003EAir Quality Guidelines\u003C\/a\u003E from the WHO (25 micrograms per cubic metre versus 10 micrograms). This is also the case for ozone.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EGiven that a lockdown is an unsustainable situation, what else needs to be done to reduce air pollution deaths? \u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe reason why air pollution is going down now is not a measure we would like to continue of course. The only way this situation could help us in the future is that if people become aware of these large reductions and they appreciated (the health impacts of reduced air pollution), so there would be a call for stricter air pollution policies, not only by environmental groups, but the general voters so to speak. Ultimately, a switch from fossil fuels to clean renewable energy is needed to solve the problem.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe tricky thing is to make people connect the dots here, to make them understand that there is a health link related to air pollution.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EStricter standards together with strengthened implementation and enforcement of current policies could save many lives. According to \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.eea.europa.eu\/publications\/soer-2020\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003Ea recent European Environment Agency report\u003C\/a\u003E,\u0026nbsp;enforcement of existing policies to comply with the air quality standards remains a problem, and it is estimated that more than 50% of the 400,000 premature deaths from PM2.5 in Europe could be avoided if current policies were fully implemented.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThis interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThe research in this article was funded by the EU. 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