[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/6979\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EAge and foaming: how to predict when a volcano will erupt\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Understanding volcanoes is an international effort. The impact of eruptions does not stop at borders,\u2019 said volcanologist Dr Catherine Annen of the University Savoie Mont Blanc in France.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThough relatively small, the eruption of the Eyjafjallaj\u00f6kull volcano in southern Iceland in 2010 sticks in many people\u2019s memories. Its drifting plume of ash led to the widespread cancellation of flights across Europe.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EToday, other, bigger volcanoes seem to be on the brink of eruption. Seismic observations suggest that Italy\u2019s Campi Flegrei, a supervolcano close to millions of people living in and around Naples, \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.abdn.ac.uk\/news\/11141\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003Eis amassing magma in a dangerous \u2018hot zone\u2019\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut such observations only give rough forecasts \u2013 usually days, weeks or months in advance \u2013 of when a volcano will erupt. \u2018The uncertainty arises from the fact that we cannot see what is happening underground,\u2019 said Dr Annen.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EScientists such as Dr Annen already have a fair idea of what goes on. Being less dense than surrounding rock, magma from deep within the Earth can rise up, potentially finding an outlet at thinner points \u2013\u0026nbsp;volcanoes \u2013\u0026nbsp;in the planet\u2019s crust.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cimg class src=\u0022\/research-and-innovation\/sites\/default\/files\/hm\/IMCEUpload\/volcanoes-factoid-982.jpg\u0022 alt width=\u0022982\u0022 height=\u0022408\u0022\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EFoaming and freezing\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMagma cools as it rises, and if we are lucky it will freeze, or solidify, before ever erupting. On the other hand, the pressure close to the surface drops too, and this liberates dissolved gases, which increase the chances of a foaming explosion \u2013 a bit like opening a shaken fizzy drink bottle.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EDr Stephan Kolzenburg, a volcanologist at McGill University in Montreal, Canada, said: \u2018These two processes \u2013 foaming and freezing \u2013 compete, and depending on which one wins, the volcano will or will not erupt.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe foaming and solidification processes also lie at the heart of mathematical volcano models. Through a research project called \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/rcn\/214152_en.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003EDYNAVOLC\u003C\/a\u003E, Dr Kolzenburg hopes that by better understanding the competition between the two processes, and by linking them to geophysical signals recorded on the Earth\u2019s surface, he will be able to improve the hazard maps depicting the areas most likely to be affected by volcanic eruptions.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAlthough his research project only began in April, it has already yielded results. In one study, Dr Kolzenburg found that the faster magma and lava flows, the faster it solidifies \u2013 knowledge that could improve the volcano models.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENot all volcanoes behave in the same way, however. Having had longer to store magma, old volcanoes tend to be hotter than young volcanoes, and this determines, for instance, the level of ground swelling close to eruption.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EVolcano\u2019s age\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EDr Annen is interested in how a volcano\u2019s age affects this and other potential warning signals. Through a project called \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/rcn\/215273_en.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003EMAGMATS\u003C\/a\u003E, she is simulating on computers the interaction of magma and gases to understand how key volcano parameters change over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003E\u2018Understanding volcanoes is an international effort.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EDr Catherine Annen, University Savoie Mont Blanc, France\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESuch parameters include temperature, gas content and magma content \u2013 none of which vary in a simple, linear fashion with one another. \u2018Simulating the processes is challenging,\u2019 she said.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENevertheless, the work should help the prediction of an eruption to be better tailored to a volcano\u2019s age \u2013\u0026nbsp;and thus more accurate. Dr Annen hopes to apply her findings to four active volcanoes: Campi Flegrei in Italy, Uturunku in Bolivia, Merapi in Indonesia and Krafla in Iceland.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018I would like to know if there are large volumes of magma ready to erupt close to the surface \u2013 or if, on the contrary, any eruption must first involve new magma transfer from deeper levels,\u2019 she said. Ultimately, she hopes that \u2018any decision about evacuation will be better informed.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThe research in this article was funded by the EU. 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