[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/6686\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003ENext-generation models revealing climate change effect on hurricanes \u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe link between climate change and tropical hurricanes is a slippery one. While scientists broadly understand the natural mechanics that drive these cyclonic storms, accurately predicting what may happen on a warming planet is far harder.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESome climate models \u003Cstrong\u003E\u2014\u003C\/strong\u003E run on supercomputers that simulate the earth\u2019s physical systems to predict changes in the future \u003Cstrong\u003E\u2014\u003C\/strong\u003E reveal a future where there may be fewer hurricanes and typhoons, but those that do occur could be more powerful.\u0026nbsp;Other research suggests the frequency will not change while there are studies that indicate tropical cyclones will become more common and more intense.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor nations in the path of destructive hurricanes, this uncertainty presents serious dilemmas for how to best prepare for the future. Should they invest billions in storm-proof infrastructure to protect their citizens, or abandon the most vulnerable communities to fate? Will more damage be caused by flooding or high-speed winds? Are their major cities likely to be at greater risk?\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn the wake of Hurricane Irma, the most powerful Atlantic Ocean storm in recorded history, and Hurricane Maria, another storm which is ranked as the most powerful Category 5, many are turning to scientists to give them answers.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOne major EU-funded project could help to provide them. The PRIMAVERA project is producing a new generation of high-resolution climate models that will examine how the oceans and atmosphere will respond over the next 30 years.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIt will combine the results of seven different models which will be run side-by-side, all attempting to answer the same questions. One of these will be how global warming is likely to alter the relationship between the Atlantic Ocean and storms that form over it.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003E\u2018If we see a rise in sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean, this may favour the formation of tropical-like cyclones.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EDr Emmanouil Flaounas, National Observatory of Athens, Greece\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018The climate models we are developing have a much higher resolution than the ones we are currently using,\u2019 said Louis-Philippe Caron, a research scientist at the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.bsc.es\/\u0022\u003EBarcelona Supercomputing Center\u003C\/a\u003E in Spain, who is taking part in PRIMAVERA. \u2018This next generation of models should have the sort of resolution where we can simulate the structure of the storms at a more realistic size and intensity.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHurricanes form due to a complex interplay between the ocean and the atmosphere.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECurrent climate models are able to simulate the effects of the ocean and atmosphere at a resolution typically between 50 and 100 kilometres, but at this sort of level it is hard to replicate many of the conditions that determine the size and intensity of hurricanes.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAnother problem is comparing current models \u003Cstrong\u003E\u2014\u003C\/strong\u003E they tend to use different data experimental approaches and different analysis approaches, which makes them hard to compare.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn PRIMAVERA, scientists are attempting to develop seven next-generation climate models that can replicate conditions in both the ocean and the atmosphere with some achieving a resolution of 15 kilometres. The models will simulate the observations over a 100-year period between 1950 and 2050, gathering atmospheric data for every three hour period.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018The simulations we produce will be a lot more realistic and we will be able to compare them with the real observations we have from the recent past,\u2019 said Caron. A single simulation run on the EU\u0027s European Commission-earth model being developed at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center as part of the PRIMAVERA project, will produce around 150 terabytes of data.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018The amount of data we will be producing is vast,\u2019 added Caron. \u2018But as we will have many high-resolution models, all doing the same experiment and being analysed together, if we see them producing the same results, we can start answering some of the big questions about hurricanes. It is why this project is quite exciting.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThose questions include how many storms might occur as the climate changes, but also the impact climate change will have on the destructiveness of storms, their wind intensity and the rainfall they produce.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe models could also help to reveal what impact hurricanes will have on Europe. Some hurricanes can travel North across the Atlantic, turning into ex-tropical cyclones that then dump large amounts of rain over Europe, causing severe flooding.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut many parts of Europe are often hit by a different type of cyclone that forms over the Mediterranean Sea and could be affected by climate change.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EMedicanes\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018The Mediterranean is one of the hotspots for the formation of cyclones in the world,\u2019 said Dr Emmanouil Flaounas, a meteorologist at the National Observatory of Athens in Greece who is conducting research on these storms in an EU-funded project called ExMeCy. \u2018It is a very small region, but has a lot of cyclones.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAlthough not as powerful as tropical cyclones, these storms can bring heavy rainfall and high winds, causing billions of Euros in damage in the countries surrounding the Mediterranean.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EDr Flaounas and his colleagues have already shown that in an 11-year period, 500 intense cyclones are responsible for up to 40 % of the total rainfall in the Mediterranean.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018About once to three times per year, these cyclones may reach comparable intensity to a Category 1\u0026nbsp;hurricane,\u2019 explained Dr Flaounas. \u2018They can cause a lot of damage and flooding.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThese extremely powerful storms are known in the scientific literature as \u2018medicanes\u2019 \u003Cstrong\u003E\u2014\u003C\/strong\u003E a portmanteau of the words \u2018Mediterranean\u2019 and \u2018hurricanes\u2019.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EUnlike tropical cyclones, however, medicanes tend to form in the winter and typically only deliver rain for a day or two.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut Dr Flaounas\u2019 research is also finding that not all medicanes are created equal. While some of the most powerful bring intense rainfall, there are other intense medicanes that generate little rain at all.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Some very strong cyclones might present very weak rainfall during their mature stage,\u2019 said Dr Flaounas. \u2018It appears to be quite unique to the Mediterranean.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHe has highlighted two different atmospheric processes appear to play a role in determining whether these storms will bring heavy rain or not.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThose with intense rainfall are powered by convection of water vapour from the ocean, much like tropical hurricanes, but also have layers of air known as warm conveyor belts, which are typically seen in the frontal weather systems that form off the west coast of the UK.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe drier storms do not show many signs of either of these atmospheric processes.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Knowing more about the detail of these processes and the impact they have on rainfall can help us to understand what will happen in the future as the climate changes,\u2019 said Dr Flaounas.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThere is some concern that changes in the climate may already be changing the behaviour of Mediterranean storms.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn November 2011 the south of France was hit by a medicane so large and powerful it was tracked by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Other recent powerful storms in November 2014 and October 2016 also formed a huge spirals more characteristic of tropical storms.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/bit.ly\/newsalertsignup\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003E\u003Cimg class src=\u0022https:\/\/horizon-magazine.eu\/research-and-innovation\/sites\/default\/files\/hm\/news-alert-final.jpg\u0022 alt width=\u0022983\u0022 height=\u0022222\u0022\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018If we see a rise in sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean, this may favour the formation of tropical-like cyclones,\u2019 said Dr Flaounas. \u2018At the moment there is too much uncertainty to know. But if we can understand what causes differences in the rainfall in Mediterranean storms, it can help us anticipate what will happen in the future.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018This could help ensure the right mitigation plans are put in place,\u2019 he said.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022moreinfoblock\u0022\u003E\n \u003Ch3\u003EHow hurricanes form\u003C\/h3\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EIn the warm, humid regions of the tropics, ocean surface temperatures can rise above 27 degrees celsius, causing water vapour to rise off the ocean surface into the air.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis evaporation carries heat into the atmosphere, where the water vapour condenses to forms storm clouds, releasing energy into the surrounding air. This drives convection currents in the atmosphere, producing winds, which form into a distinctive swirling vortex due to the rotation of the earth.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETropical cyclones become named storms once wind speeds exceed 39 miles per hour (62 kilometres per hour). To be classified as a hurricane, typhoon or cyclone - the name depends where in the world the storm occurs - wind speeds must exceed 74 miles per hour (119 kilometres per hour).\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAs the hurricane pulls more heat from the ocean surface it can grow rapidly, but this can also drag up colder water from the depths, which can in turn slow the cyclone down.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhen a cyclone hits land, it starts to weaken as it is no longer able to draw the heat that powers it from the ocean surface.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn the Atlantic Basin there are anywhere between four and 28 named tropical storms in any given year. This year there have already been 14 named storms with predictions that there could be a further five before the hurricane season ends.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022moreinfoblock\u0022\u003E\n \u003Ch3\u003EThe Issue\u003C\/h3\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EGreenhouse gas emissions have risen significantly since pre-industrial times, while\u0026nbsp;fossil fuel use and industrial processes increased by \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/overview.php?v=CO2ts1990-2013\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003E126 %\u003C\/a\u003E between 1970 and 2013.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe EU has \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/clima\/policies\/strategies\/2020_en\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022\u003Eset targets\u003C\/a\u003E for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 20 % by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. This is part of its trio of goals known as the 20-20-20 targets, in which the EU also commits to sourcing 20 % of EU energy from renewables and achieving a 20 % improvement in energy inefficiency.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EIf you liked this article, please consider sharing it on social media.\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/textarea\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 class=\u0022ecl-help-block description\u0022\u003E\n Please copy the above code and embed it onto your website to republish.\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cinput autocomplete=\u0022off\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022form-wbltvsj0ckasfc-zu-jtwtwphekquppo5lveuwkllqc\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_build_id\u0022 value=\u0022form-WBLTVsj0cKASFC_Zu_jtWTwpHeKquppo5LveUWkllQc\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003Cinput data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_id\u0022 value=\u0022modal_form_example_modal_form\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003C\/form\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E","dialogOptions":{"width":"800","modal":true,"title":"Republish this content"}}]