[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/5918\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EArctic: the challenges of opening up the northern route\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor over a decade, a \u2018new Arctic\u2019 has been taking shape. The countdown is well underway, so without further delay we need to ask what is at stake, the opportunities and the challenges for Europe.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWhen the Arctic awakens\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhen the Arctic awakens \u2013 feverishly - the world will have its feet in the water. Almost half of the increase in sea level will come from the melting ice caps, including that of Greenland. While predictions are for an average increase in global temperatures of 2 degrees Celsius within a few decades, those beyond the Arctic Circle could reach 6 degrees Celsius. If we include the fact that the Arctic ecosystems are more fragile than elsewhere, we can be almost certain that the observed phenomena and their consequences will be irreversible.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAlongside activities to mitigate climate change (the origin of this upheaval), a clear analysis of adaptation strategies would also be welcome. For that, forward thinking which includes all the different parameters should enable us to evaluate the positions we need to take and the important decisions we need to make, starting now.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EA mechanism that is still poorly understood\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EScientists are perplexed: over the last fifteen years, the melting of the ice in the Arctic Ocean has accelerated at a level that was never predicted. The mechanism is still not well understood because no current climate model is able to explain it with certainty, as this part of the globe has been poorly studied in the past due to the difficulties in accessing it.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EA second reason is that the equilibrium of the Arctic environment is inherently fragile, and therefore prone to disruptions. Even the weather is more temperamental than elsewhere. If we want to improve our analysis so we can make enlightened decisions, we need to better understand the complexity and fragility of the northern regions. The corollary is the improvement of our forecasts using more measuring stations and more satellite observations. Not to mention the role of the social sciences in understanding the impacts on local populations.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E15\u0026nbsp;% of world seaborne trade by the northern route\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe economy has no qualms, unfortunately. It is almost certain, according to climate models, that from 2030 navigable routes between Asia and Europe will be open for much of the summer, which can shorten the distance between Europe and Asia by half. We estimate the proportion of global traffic that will pass through this route is 15 %. China already tested it in August 2013.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn addition to the benefits for the merchant navy, access will also be facilitated for the fishing sector \u2013 Arctic waters are the richest fishing grounds in the world and global warming will make a number of economically valuable species head north. It will also be easier to access gas resources \u2013 estimated at 30 % of undiscovered reserves \u2013 and facilitate the development of \u2018cruise liner tourism\u2019. One of the consequences feared by scientists is the deposition of soot particles from diesel ship engines, which will further contribute to the melting of snow and ice.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETherefore the potential arises, for example, for cleaner engines or even for nuclear motors for the propulsion of \u2018Nordic ships\u2019, especially as their size will not be limited by having to pass through the Panama and Suez canals. For a long time, Russia has made this choice to propel icebreakers because it allows for autonomy and power.\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003E\u2018We must note that it is not climate change that opens shipping lanes or provides access to new resources, it is political decisions.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EDidier Schmitt, Scientific Advisor, European Commission\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EA programme required for satellite positioning\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWith transport comes safety. Because of geographical isolation, technological solutions need to come predominantly \u2018from the sky\u2019. But at the moment, satellite positioning systems such as the European Galileo system \u2013 which also has a component for sea rescue \u2013 are in orbits that cover the most populated latitudes. As for European satellite telecommunications and meteorology satellites, in general they operate on an equatorial orbit and have even less \u2018visibility\u2019 to the north. There is little the four million-odd people who live around the Arctic have been able to do about it. But in the future, maritime activities won\u2019t be able to become routine unless a specific space programme is implemented.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ESignificant investments\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe polar orbiting satellites have constraints compared to their geostationary cousins, which rotate from west to east in time with the earth and are, in that way, permanently over the same area. In contrast, a \u2018polar satellite\u2019 can only pass over the same spot every few hours, at best. This must be compensated for by a large number of identical satellites which follow in single file. The investments will be significant, but of global interest. These satellites \u2018sweeping\u2019 the whole earth\u0027s surface could be used for many other applications.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn addition, the needs for security and research in the Arctic are similar to those of Antarctica and would in fact be covered by the same satellites, a nice win-win situation. We should also consider the possible synergies between satellites and drones or high-altitude balloons which could constitute complementary observation, geolocalisation or communication platforms. The time has come to develop integrated forward thinking, because it will take time to find partners and agree on common needs and divisions of responsibilities. It will take a decade for the technological developments, so 2030 is not far off at all!\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EUnite European efforts\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhat is not visible from an equatorial world map is that, viewed from the northern hemisphere, the world is very different: the borders between Russia, Canada, the United States and Europe are merging. These neighbours are discussing the development of the Far North as part of the Arctic Council, and observers to the council are becoming more and more numerous, with China at their head. As Europeans, we have rights and duties but also assets to make use of, such as in the space sector, shipyards, and also skills in developing cooperation programmes, as is already the case for several large-scale scientific programmes. In fact, Europe should go further and establish an \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/horizon-magazine.eu\/article\/europe-and-asia-countries-head-svalbard-monitor-arctic_en.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E\u2018Arctic observatory\u2019\u003C\/a\u003E rationalising and bringing together European and international efforts \u2013 we have the legitimacy.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EFrom technological needs to geopolicy\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAny considerations must integrate several facets: a better understanding of specific climate change in the Arctic, possible mitigations, technological requirements, long-term economic consequences (trade, fishing ...) and even geopolitical consequences such as the potential self-determination of Greenland, Russian ambitions for the polar seabed, and equilibrium in the field of defence.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFinally, we must note that it is not climate change that opens shipping lanes or provides access to new resources, it is political decisions. All of Europe should pay more attention to its own hemisphere, because it may well dramatically shift some centres of gravity, and for a long time.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E*\u0026nbsp;Didier Schmitt is scientific adviser and foresight coordinator in the Chief Scientific Adviser\u0027s Office and at the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)\u0026nbsp;at the European Commission.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the European Commission.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.latribune.fr\/opinions\/tribunes\/20140129trib000812584\/arctique-les-enjeux-de-l-ouverture-de-la-route-du-nord.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E\u003Cem\u003E*This article first appeared in La Tribune on 29.01.14\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/textarea\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 class=\u0022ecl-help-block description\u0022\u003E\n Please copy the above code and embed it onto your website to republish.\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cinput autocomplete=\u0022off\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022form-pnc8ucr1g80-f15gvdfrm7zncrcih0cdep-5lzjioia\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_build_id\u0022 value=\u0022form-pnc8UCr1g80-f15GvDfrM7zNcRCiH0Cdep-5LzJIOiA\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003Cinput data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_id\u0022 value=\u0022modal_form_example_modal_form\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003C\/form\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E","dialogOptions":{"width":"800","modal":true,"title":"Republish this content"}}]