[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/5876\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003ESolid climate forecasting \u2018could take until 2050\u2019\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMeteorologists were able to predict the Haiyan typhoon several days before it hit the Philippines on 7 November 2013, killing thousands. However, governments need decades of warning ahead of periods of extreme weather to enable them to build sea defences and protect low-lying areas.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018The decadal predictability experiments are just at their infancy,\u2019 said Professor Asrar during an interview on 4 November on the sidelines of \u003Cspan\u003EThe International Conference on Regional Climate\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u0026nbsp;-\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan\u003ECORDEX\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u0026nbsp;2013\u003C\/span\u003E. The event, jointly organised by the WCRP, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the European Commission, brought together scientists from 59 different countries to discuss climate forecasting.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EScientists are under pressure from governments to harness longer-term forecasts as officials try to assess the risks of climate change to investments in local infrastructure such as roads, dams, electrical grids, ports and harbours.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOne of the things that is needed to develop climate forecasts that can make predictions 10 years or more in advance is for developing countries to build up their understanding of their local climates, said Prof. Asrar, who is now the director of the Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHowever, there is a research gap between\u0026nbsp;developing regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia in particular which needs to be filled.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe WCRP is working to help fill this gap. It was founded in 1980 to help scientists foresee changes to the earth\u2019s climate by getting the global scientific community to share their findings. This\u0026nbsp;is something it has been doing in Africa by developing networks to flesh out climate science,\u0026nbsp;Prof. Asrar said.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe body recently convinced 12 global centres of excellence from around the world to focus on developing temperature and precipitation simulations for Africa. However, there is still much work to do.\u0026nbsp;\u2018This task of community building takes time, it takes energy,\u2019 Prof. Asrar said.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ENever complex enough\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOne of the main problems with making longer-term forecasts is that nature is very difficult to imitate in a mathematical equation, according to Prof. Asrar. \u2018We can never make these models complex enough to represent nature but we have made tremendous progress by making these models as close to reality as possible,\u2019 he said.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EClimate modelling is still much more accurate than it was thirty years ago,\u0026nbsp;he said, because scientists are now factoring in the role of oceans, polar regions, the level of carbon in the system, and the amount of the sun\u2019s energy absorbed by the earth, a process called radiative forcing. \u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003E\u2018We can never make these models complex enough to represent nature but we have made tremendous progress by making these models as close to reality as possible.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EProfessor Ghassem Asrar, the former director of the World Climate Research Programme\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhile\u0026nbsp;global air surface temperatures have not risen as much as predicted, radiative forcing has increased, meaning more energy is being absorbed by the earth rather than reflected back into space. That has caused a build-up of heat that is landing in the earth\u2019s oceans, the IPCC said in June 2013 in its\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/horizon-magazine.eu\/article\/evidence-mounts-human-role-climate-change_en.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E latest report \u003C\/a\u003Eon climate change.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EUnderstanding the effect of radiative forcing on the oceans is critical to making longer-term forecasts.\u0026nbsp;The WCRP is\u0026nbsp;increasing its support for ocean observation by\u0026nbsp;organising meetings, workshops and conferences to coordinate and facilitate research. \u2018We believe that the signal for climate prediction is not only in the atmosphere, it\u2019s also in the ocean,\u2019 Prof. Asrar said.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe contibution of research funded by the EU has been \u0027instrumental\u0027 in the progess made so far on developing climate models, he said. \u0027The international climate research community anticipates this area of research to be a major priority of Horizon 2020 in Europe, and other research funding opportunities worldwide.\u0027\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHowever, he believes governments around the world need to treat the environment as urgently as they may treat policies to boost economic growth. \u2018Put the environment at the base of social and economic (development) and integrate that knowledge into every socio-economic discussion and decision.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHe is optimistic about a new reform agenda as the UN comes to draft the next post-2015 phase of its Millennium Development Goals which have so far focussed on eradicating poverty and debt in the world\u2019s least developed countries.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Why not integrate environmental goals into those because, ultimately, you cannot have a thriving economy if the environment is not preserved.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/textarea\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 class=\u0022ecl-help-block description\u0022\u003E\n Please copy the above code and embed it onto your website to republish.\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cinput autocomplete=\u0022off\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022form-8-jsqfmeqz3ivxgzszqkxp3yvtgd9ik8bkkvcg6besw\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_build_id\u0022 value=\u0022form-8_jSQFmeqz3IvxGzSzqkXp3yvtgD9Ik8BKkvCg6BeSw\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003Cinput data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_id\u0022 value=\u0022modal_form_example_modal_form\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003C\/form\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E","dialogOptions":{"width":"800","modal":true,"title":"Republish this content"}}]