[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/5851\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003E Evidence mounts for human role in climate change\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe data used to compile the report includes that gathered by the EU-funded airship PEGASOS, which has been measuring the air quality over Europe to link air pollution to climate change, and RECONCILE, which helped find the first ever observed hole in the ozone layer in the Arctic region.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn its fifth assessment report, released on 27 September, the IPCC concluded that there is an at least 95 % likelihood that humans are the dominant cause of global warming. That makes them the surest they have ever been that humans are causing climate change.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EScientists are able to be so categorical because of the number of research papers that have been taken into account in producing the report. It cites over 9 200 scientific publications, more than three quarters of which have been published since the previous assessment in 2007, and bases its conclusions on millions of observations.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Up to now it is the only endeavour of this kind of science in the world,\u2019 said Dr Anastasios Kentarchos, the deputy head of the Climate Change and Natural Hazards Unit at the European Commission\u2019s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, who was present during the discussions in Stockholm running up to the publication of the report.\u0026nbsp;\u2018This is a huge pool of scientists that on a voluntary basis are giving their brains and their minds for five years to do this work,\u2019 he added referring to the IPCC report.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EUnprecedented in 800 000 years\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAtmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800 000 years, the report said.\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003E\u2018Up to now it is the only endeavour of this kind of science in the world.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EDr Anastasios Kentarchos, the deputy head of the Climate Change and Natural Hazards Unit at the European Commission\u2019s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe EU\u2019s in-house science service, the Joint Research Centre, has provided critical data on worldwide emissions through its EDGAR database, which models emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe rise in greenhouse gases is likely to mean that global temperatures will increase by over 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, when compared to the 1850 to 1900 period,\u0026nbsp;according to all but the lowest scenario considered by the report.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system,\u2019 said Thomas Stocker, the co-chairman of the IPCC group that assesses the physical science basis for climate change.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EClimate models\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EComplex computer models, such as those developed by the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project, are required to allow the panel to make such forecasts. The project has modelled the simultaneous activity of the oceans, land and the atmosphere to show that the world will experience further measurable climate change.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022img_legend\u0022 style=\u0022float: left;\u0022\u003E\u003Cfigure role=\u0022group\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cimg alt=\u0022The European airship PEGASOS. \u00a9 PEGASOS\u0022 height=\u0022150\u0022 src=\u0022\/research-and-innovation\/sites\/default\/files\/hm\/CIMG4764_0.JPG\u0022 title=\u0022The European airship PEGASOS. \u00a9 PEGASOS\u0022 width=\u0022200\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cfigcaption class=\u0022tw-italic tw-mb-4\u0022\u003EThe European airship PEGASOS. \u00a9 PEGASOS\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\n\u003C\/figure\u003E\n\u003Cem\u003EThe European airship PEGASOS. \u00a9 PEGASOS\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOther research groups concentrated on specific aspects, like Ice2Sea, which forecasts that by 2100 storm surges along Europe\u2019s coastline could be up to 1 metre higher than they are today, presenting challenges to flood defences and natural habitats.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHowever, more data is needed to improve the accuracy of the models, for example by understanding the role of the permafrost, the permanently frozen layer of soil, in the Arctic regions on greenhouse gas levels. That\u0027s now being done by the EU-funded PAGE21 project, which brings together permafrost researchers from Europe, Canada, Russia, the US, and Japan.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018The more observations you build, the better you understand the drivers of climate change and you can validate more accurately the next generation of climate models,\u2019 said Dr Kentarchos.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFuture research should concentrate on improving the capacity of climate models to make forecasts on a regional scale, providing data that is useful for farmers as they plan how best to use their land, or governments as they decide where to invest money to protect their citizens from climate change.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018The models are useful to stakeholders when they give you trustworthy information at the right regional or sub-regional scale,\u2019 said Dr Kentarchos.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/textarea\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 class=\u0022ecl-help-block description\u0022\u003E\n Please copy the above code and embed it onto your website to republish.\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cinput autocomplete=\u0022off\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022form-h6qxcw3tp5yvpzfhy1sdzxfcut5xauwbezndqlbmdlc\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_build_id\u0022 value=\u0022form-h6qxCW3TP5YVpzFHy1SDZXfcUT5xAuwbeznDqLbMdlc\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003Cinput data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_id\u0022 value=\u0022modal_form_example_modal_form\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003C\/form\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E","dialogOptions":{"width":"800","modal":true,"title":"Republish this content"}}]