[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/5762\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EDeep impact: how to deflect an asteroid\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003ELater that same day, Asteroid 2012 DA14, which was first spotted by astronomers in Spain last year, whizzed by the Earth \u2013 at a distance of 27\u0026nbsp;000 km from our planet\u2019s surface. Estimated to be between 45-50\u0026nbsp;m in diameter, more than twice the size of the Chelyabinsk rock, this asteroid \u2013 had it crashed into Earth \u2013 would likely have wreaked far greater devastation than the Chelyabinsk fireball.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETo keep the chances of a fateful asteroid collision with Earth to a minimum, researchers are working out how to deflect potentially dangerous asteroids from their courses. Since January 2012, the EU-backed project NEOShield, or Near Earth Object (NEO) Shield, has been testing the theory and techniques behind the best ideas put forth to date on how to fend off Earth-bound asteroids.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIts work will be complemented by another EU project, STARDUST, which kicked off in February 2013 and that plans to build up a network of researchers trained in asteroid and space debris deflection over the course of the next four years.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBoth projects bring together several research partners, not all of them European. Russia and the US are involved in NEOShield for example, as ultimately the project is looking to draw up a global response to the challenge of deflecting asteroids \u2013 after all, asteroids can strike anywhere.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EComing to a place near you\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhile it\u2019s clear that there are asteroids out there, what is the actual probability that the Earth will be hit by one? \u2018Ah, to that, I can only say \u201chow long is a piece of string?\u201d\u2019 says NEOShield Researcher, Professor Alan Fitzsimmons of Queen\u2019s University Belfast. \u2018Asteroids come in all sizes, and rather like pebbles on a beach, it\u2019s the small ones that are most likely to hit us, simply because there are more of them.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018A one kilometre-wide asteroid is likely to hit us once every 800\u0026nbsp;000 to 1 million years. A small one like that seen over Chelyabinsk \u2013 about 17\u0026nbsp;m in diameter \u2013 is likely to hit us every 80 to 100 years.\u2019 \u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003EIn 2029, the asteroid, Apophis, which is about 300\u0026amp;nbsp;m in diameter, is due to fly past Earth. It is predicted to miss us by only 30\u0026amp;nbsp;000 km ... We should be ready for that.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EProfessor Alan Harris, NEOShield Coordinator \u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMost asteroids orbit the sun within the asteroid belt, which is located between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. A relative few, however, orbit the sun on a trajectory that brings them close to Earth \u2013 so-called Near Earth Objects \u2013 of which only a small number come so near to Earth that they pose a threat.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAt NEOShield, the focus is on dealing with asteroids slightly larger than the one that exploded above Chelyabinsk. \u2018Detecting tiny asteroids is still extremely difficult. There are so many of them, it\u2019s hard to keep track,\u2019 says NEOShield Coordinator, Professor Alan Harris of Berlin\u2019s DLR (German Aerospace Centre) Institute of Planetary Research.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Most small asteroids will explode before they hit the ground. We are concerned about the ones that are around 100 metres upwards in diameter that are heavier and will most likely not only hit the ground but leave a crater,\u2019 says Harris. \u2018To put this in context, there are presently an estimated 20\u0026nbsp;000 Near Earth Objects with a diameter of 100 metres or more. Astronomers have detected 25 % of them. But 75 % of them have not yet been found.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EKick, tug or nuke\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EPart of NEOShield\u2019s work is to find out more information on the properties of known NEOs. These details are essential when it comes to testing proposed asteroid deflection techniques; what works well for deflecting one asteroid may not work well for another. An asteroid\u2019s mineral composition and porosity, for example, will affect its behaviour in relation to a chosen deflection technique.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Ideas on asteroid deflection have been around for a few years,\u2019 says Fitzsimmons. \u2018But we\u2019ve never yet tried to implement one for real. Through numerical calculations, physical measurements and modelling, we are testing the best techniques proposed to date. By the end of the project, we will recommend a method that could eventually be tested by a space mission on a real asteroid.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe three main asteroid deflection techniques under scrutiny are the \u2018Kick\u2019, \u2018Tug\u2019, and \u2018Nuke\u2019 approaches. Referring to the \u2018Nuke\u2019 approach Harris explains: \u2018We can\u2019t conduct a nuclear explosion, but we can weigh up the efficiency of such a technique. Blowing up a nuclear explosive close to an asteroid could turn out to be the best way to get rid of an asteroid, or it could result in the rock splintering into millions of pieces that would cause yet more damage.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EUnder the \u2018Kick\u2019 method, formally known as the Kinetic Impactor Mitigation method, a spacecraft alters an asteroid\u2019s velocity and eventual path by crashing into it. The momentum of the impacting body is thus transferred to the asteroid, causing it to veer from its original path.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe \u2018Tug\u2019 method employs a \u2018gravity tractor\u2019 to move the asteroid. The tractor is essentially a spacecraft which hovers above the asteroid and uses its gravitational attraction to pull the asteroid slightly off course. \u003Cspan class=\u0022img_legend\u0022 style=\u0022float: left;\u0022\u003E \u003Cfigure role=\u0022group\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cimg alt=\u0022Professor Alan Harris, NEOShield Coordinator.\u0022 height=\u0022180\u0022 src=\u0022\/research-and-innovation\/sites\/default\/files\/hm\/large_7_Alan_Harris_no%20credit.jpg\u0022 title=\u0022Professor Alan Harris, NEOShield Coordinator.\u0022 width=\u0022180\u0022\u003E\n\u003Cfigcaption class=\u0022tw-italic tw-mb-4\u0022\u003EProfessor Alan Harris, NEOShield Coordinator.\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\n\u003C\/figure\u003E\n\u003Cem\u003EProfessor Alan Harris, NEOShield Coordinator.\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EOf stardust and satellites\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOnce NEOShield gives its final recommendation on the design of a future space mission, it is possible that experts trained through the STARDUST project could help take the mission a stage further.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018During the project, we intend to recruit 15 people for training in asteroid and space debris deflection in academic institutes and space research centres across Europe,\u2019 says Massimiliano Vasile, who is coordinating the project from his Advanced Space Concepts Laboratory at the University of Strathclyde UK. \u2018There are many individual projects looking into this subject,\u2019 he adds, \u2018but we would like to create a core group of experts dedicated to its development and who are ready to act as decision-makers in the future.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESTARDUST recruits will be trained variously in modelling and simulation, orbit and altitude estimation and prediction, and active removal or deflection of uncooperative targets.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAn \u2018uncooperative target\u2019 could either be an asteroid or a piece of space debris. \u2018In addition to asteroids orbiting the sun, we have a cloud of man-made objects, or space debris, orbiting the Earth,\u2019 says Vasile. \u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003EIntelligent life on Earth has developed only because of the lucky chance that there have been no major collisions in the last 70 million years.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EProfessor Stephen Hawking, British physicist, \u0026#039;Life in the Universe\u0026#039; lecture, 1996.\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Humans created this junk, which mainly consists of satellites, employed for communications or observation purposes. We need experts now to track and keep this space debris under observation. Like asteroids, expended satellites are not controllable. We might be able to renew software on satellites, but once a satellite becomes defunct, usually after 10 years, we cannot yet physically repair them. Until we can, we need to find ways of effectively disposing of them because otherwise there\u2019s a good chance of satellites colliding, causing a dangerous chain reaction in space.\u2019\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EFinal countdown \u003Cbr\u003E\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETo date, the idea of the Earth colliding with an asteroid has generally been considered the stuff of sci-fi movies. But February\u2019s events have changed perceptions. \u2018Since Chelyabinsk, asteroid deflection is no longer being viewed by the public as a marginal consideration,\u2019 says Harris. \u2018It\u2019s an issue that needs to be addressed.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhile no giant asteroid is predicted to come our way tomorrow, asteroid watchers remain vigilant. \u2018In 2029, the asteroid, Apophis, which is about 300\u0026nbsp;m in diameter, is due to fly past Earth. It is predicted to miss us by only 30\u0026nbsp;000 km,\u2019 says Harris. \u2018We should be ready for that.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/textarea\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv id=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 class=\u0022ecl-help-block description\u0022\u003E\n Please copy the above code and embed it onto your website to republish.\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cinput autocomplete=\u0022off\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022form-w-w9hrd2qzcrucgxen0agpgm6tranfhycozgaczu5lu\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_build_id\u0022 value=\u0022form-W_w9hrd2QzCRUCgXen0aGpGm6trANfHYcOzGacZu5LU\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003Cinput data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022form_id\u0022 value=\u0022modal_form_example_modal_form\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003C\/form\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E","dialogOptions":{"width":"800","modal":true,"title":"Republish this content"}}]