[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/11635\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EUncovering the ripple effects of the climate crisis\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENo roads lead to Iquitos, a Peruvian port city surrounded by the Amazon rainforest and reachable only by river.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe city\u2019s diverse communities and ways of living \u2013 including fishing and farming \u2013 were what drew Heidi Mendoza. She\u2019s a researcher who leads field work there on the human toll of climate change.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ELivelihoods under threat\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor centuries, inhabitants of the Peruvian Amazon have lived by the seasons, fishing during the wet part of the year and farming in the dry months. But now prolonged dry spells \u2013 often followed by torrential downpours \u2013 threaten livelihoods as fish move to other parts of the river and once-thriving crops yield less.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018The dry season is becoming either too hot or too prolonged,\u2019 said Mendoza, a researcher based at the Institute for Environmental Studies of VU Amsterdam in the Netherlands.\u0026nbsp;\u2018Same with the wet season; when the river floods, it happens either too suddenly or for\u0026nbsp;a\u0026nbsp;longer period of time.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EShe is part of a project that received EU funding to take a hands-on approach to the study of climate change\u2019s effects by carrying out research activities with affected communities.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECalled\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/948601\u0022\u003EPerfectSTORM\u003C\/a\u003E, the five-year project runs through February 2026 and studies drought and flood processes through data analysis, modelling and storytelling.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThrough the United Nations Paris Agreement, the world is seeking to cut emissions of greenhouse gases in a bid to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times and counter more frequent \u2013 and increasingly severe \u2013 droughts, storms and floods worldwide. This effort is known as climate-change mitigation.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAt the same time, countries are trying to help their cities and rural areas cope with and prepare for the effects of global warming that it\u2019s too late to avert \u2013 an effort known as climate-change adaptation. The EU has a whole research\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu\/funding\/funding-opportunities\/funding-programmes-and-open-calls\/horizon-europe\/eu-missions-horizon-europe\/adaptation-climate-change_en\u0022\u003Emission\u003C\/a\u003E helping regions adapt and prepare.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EVillage vulnerabilities\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMendoza and colleagues spent a combined three months in 2022 and 2023 visiting riverside villages on the outskirts of Iquitos. The team\u2019s goal was to understand how climate change and other human activities are affecting local lives and spot vulnerabilities for local residents.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003EThe dry season is becoming either too hot or too prolonged.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EHeidi Mendoza, PerfectSTORM\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe team is also collecting evidence from eastern Kenya, where members spent four months in late 2022 and early 2023 working with villagers in the basin of the seasonal Tiva River.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe researchers are learning more about the underlying connections among changes in rain patterns, adaptation measures taken by affected communities and the subsequent impact of extreme weather.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor example, human activities such as building water pans \u2013 depressions in the ground to collect run-off water \u2013 during dry periods might worsen the impact of subsequent floods, according to Anne Van Loon, an associate professor in drought risk at VU Amsterdam who leads PerfectSTORM.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018We have seen many cases where floods that happen after a dry period have a worse impact than those that are not preceded by a drought,\u2019 she said.\u0026nbsp;\u2018We want to understand whether any of the human activity during the dry spell may be altering the flood risk.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMovements of people or livestock towards rivers during dry periods can make settlements more vulnerable to floods, according to Van Loon.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWith each cycle of drought and flood, people risk becoming more vulnerable, including with regard to their health.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EFighting back\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThat\u2019s why efforts to step up climate resilience are so important, especially in relatively poor countries where more people live directly off the land.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETwo decades ago, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/env\/cc\/2502872.pdf\u0022\u003Ewarned\u003C\/a\u003E that climate change risked undermining poverty reduction and undoing decades of development efforts worldwide.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EToday in Peru, the villagers around Iquitos have begun experimenting with a greater variety of crops such as corn and coriander instead of the traditional staples cassava and plantains.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThey have also started increasing the length of the stilts on which houses are raised to prevent them from being damaged or even destroyed by floods.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn Kenya, a shift from raising cattle to goats has helped villagers adapt to droughts (goats require less water), while tree planting and conservation are strengthening the landscape\u2019s resilience against severe weather.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ERipple effects\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAnother Dutch researcher \u2013 Bart\u0026nbsp;van\u0026nbsp;den Hurk \u2013 has been looking at the human costs of climate change from a broader angle: the ripple effects across national borders and regions.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EVan den Hurk is a professor of climate-sociology interactions at VU Amsterdam\u2019s Institute for Environmental Studies and scientific director at Deltares, a water-studies institute in the Netherlands. He led an EU-funded project that linked changes in global weather patterns with socioeconomic consequences for Europe.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003EWe have contributed to a new generation of climate analysts.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003EProfessor Bart van den Hurk, RECEIPT\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe project, called\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/820712\u0022\u003ERECEIPT\u003C\/a\u003E, ran for more than four years until the end of 2023.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe RECEIPT team set out to understand how climate effects play out in an interconnected world, with a particular focus on how weather-related disasters in distant parts of the world affect Europeans.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor example, catastrophic flooding in Thailand 13 years ago sent shockwaves through the global electronics industry because the country is the world\u2019s second-biggest producer of computer hard drives.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe months-long inundations of 2011 were the worst in 50 years, forcing Thai ports to close, disrupting production and destroying inventory intended for export. In the ensuing months, prices of hard drives jumped tenfold and industries in Europe were shaken.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018We saw that smaller companies in Europe were affected much harder than bigger ones,\u2019 said van\u0026nbsp;den Hurk. \u2018The smaller companies would go bankrupt and get bought by the bigger companies. So those floods in Thailand caused quite a shake-up of the market in Europe.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ENew view\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe RECEIPT team mapped these kinds of knock-on effects, analysing climate-crisis trends in various regions of the world that have economic links to Europe.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor example, the disruption to oil, natural-gas and chemical production wreaked by Hurricane Harvey in the US state of Texas in 2017 affected markets in Europe.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESo did droughts that hit Argentina, Brazil and the US five years earlier, causing a global shortage of soy. Overall, 17 weather-related disasters and their global consequences were studied in detail.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn a sign of the political priority that the EU is giving the matter, the European Commission this month published a\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/climate.ec.europa.eu\/document\/download\/b04a5ed8-83da-4007-9c25-1323ca4f3c92_en\u0022\u003Epolicy pape\u003C\/a\u003Er on managing climate risks in Europe.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe RECEIPT team zeroed in on the tangible impact that Europeans would feel from extreme weather elsewhere and considered options to help make European communities and industries more resilient.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe responses include policy proposals to help prevent the effects before the weather-related disasters hit and new tools to identify possible disaster hotspots.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOne \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/climatestorylines.eu\/climate-storyline-visualiser\/\u0022\u003Evisual tool\u003C\/a\u003E enables people including policymakers to zoom in on areas that have connections to Europe and look at how various climate-change scenarios may affect industries in the region including agriculture, finance and manufacturing.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe project participants included not just climate modellers but also people with backgrounds in economics, psychology and other disciplines that reflect the broad nature and impact of the climate crisis.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018I hope that we have contributed to a new generation of climate analysts who will look at climate change more from a direct impact point of view rather than just at the pure physical processes,\u2019 van\u0026nbsp;den Hurk said.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EResearch in this article was funded by the EU\u2019s Horizon Programme including, in the case of PerfectSTORM, via the European Research Council (ERC). The views of the interviewees don\u2019t necessarily reflect those of the European Commission. 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