[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv id=\u0022republish_modal_form\u0022\u003E\u003Cform class=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form ecl-form\u0022 data-drupal-selector=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 action=\u0022\/en\/article\/modal\/11012\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022 id=\u0022modal-form-example-modal-form\u0022 accept-charset=\u0022UTF-8\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHorizon articles can be republished for free under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EYou must give appropriate credit. We ask you to do this by:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 1) Using the original journalist\u0027s byline\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 2) Linking back to our original story\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n 3) Using the following text in the footer: This article was originally published in \u003Ca href=\u0027#\u0027\u003EHorizon, the EU Research and Innovation magazine\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003ESee our full republication guidelines \u003Ca href=\u0027\/horizon-magazine\/republish-our-stories\u0027\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003EHTML for this article, including the attribution and page view counter, is below:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textarea form-item-body-content js-form-item-body-content ecl-form-group ecl-form-group--text-area form-no-label ecl-u-mv-m\u0022\u003E\n \n\u003Cdiv\u003E\n \u003Ctextarea data-drupal-selector=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 aria-describedby=\u0022edit-body-content--description\u0022 id=\u0022edit-body-content\u0022 name=\u0022body_content\u0022 rows=\u00225\u0022 cols=\u002260\u0022 class=\u0022form-textarea ecl-text-area\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EFighting extreme weather with extreme computing power\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn late October, climate change suddenly felt very real in northern Italy. A severe storm brought heavy rainfall to the region, causing Lake Como and the Seveso River to burst their banks. The flooding hit towns and cities including Milan in the latest stark reminder of the area\u2019s vulnerability to extreme weather.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAt the Polytechnic University of Milan, Professor Andrea Castelletti is studying the behaviour of water and landscapes. An expert in natural-resources management, he thinks artificial intelligence (AI) may offer much-needed answers as global warming triggers increasingly destructive \u2013 and more frequent \u2013 storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EPotential ally\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe October floods in Italy came on the heels of extreme drought in the country only months earlier. Areas of Greece, including the central-eastern port city of Volos, faced a similar one-two punch, with scorching temperatures sparking large wildfires in July and freak storms destroying farmland, livestock, homes, roads, vehicles and other property in September.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018We\u2019re dramatically facing the accelerated effects of climate change,\u2019 said Castelletti. \u2018We need to better mitigate and prepare for these events. AI might help with that.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAI has grabbed headlines so far for its ever-improving ability to generate text, personalise services and even create art.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut the technology might also be harnessed for the more pressing case of fighting climate change, which is making extreme weather not only more common but also harder to predict. So can AI help with forecasting and could it have predicted the Como flooding?\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EExtreme weather will feature at this year\u2019s United Nations climate change summit in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates. Known as\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.cop28.com\/en\/\u0022\u003ECOP28\u003C\/a\u003E, the conference will start on 30 November and is due to run until 12 December.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAs it seeks to combat global warming, the UN has said people worldwide need adequate warnings of extreme events in order to prepare for them. This is a key objective in a\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/news.un.org\/en\/story\/2022\/03\/1114462?_gl=1*a3mqk*_ga*MTU4ODI4NTQ3My4xNzAwNjU1NTc3*_ga_TK9BQL5X7Z*MTcwMDY1NTU4MS4xLjEuMTcwMDY1NTY0NS4wLjAuMA\u0022\u003Efive-year UN plan\u003C\/a\u003E to improve early-warning systems.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThat\u2019s where AI may have a role to play.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EClearer forecasts\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECastelletti believes AI could be the ingredient that improves current climate and weather models. Today\u2019s models take large amounts of data and feed them into mathematical formulas to make predictions.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003EWe\u2019re dramatically facing the accelerated effects of climate change.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003E Professor Andrea Castelletti, CLINT\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor all their number-crunching power, he said the models could be more accurate.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018They still have weaknesses,\u2019 Castelletti said. \u2018AI might solve those.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECastelletti is leading a research project that received EU funding to combine AI and Europe\u2019s Copernicus satellite network to improve climate forecasting. Called\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/101003876\u0022\u003ECLINT\u003C\/a\u003E, the four-year project runs through June 2025.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EResearchers from Belgium, France, Italy, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK are working to determine how AI can add to knowledge about extreme weather.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Existing climate models aren\u2019t very good for certain extreme weather events,\u2019 said Professor Dim Coumou, a climatology expert at the University of Amsterdam in the Netherlands. \u2018Heatwaves in Europe are, for example, increasing much faster in the real world compared to what the models tell us should happen.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EComing soon?\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe reasons might be changes in the high-altitude air currents \u2013 jet streams \u2013 that can influence all kinds of weather phenomena, including heatwaves, hurricanes and droughts.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWith AI, researchers hope they can better understand the causes of such events and eventually predict them more accurately.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThat would mean, for example, more reliable and timely alerts to southern Europeans about dangerously hot summers. It would also serve other parts of the world such as Africa facing increasingly disruptive weather.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn Libya in September, a cyclone brought heavy rains that caused flooding, the collapse of two dams and the deaths of more than 4 000 people in eastern coastal areas including the city of Derna.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018It\u2019s important to forecast extremes so we can have early warnings,\u2019 Coumou said.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHe said that AI would probably be widely introduced into climate models within the next five years.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECastelletti said the trend has already begun, with the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.ecmwf.int\/\u0022\u003EEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts\u003C\/a\u003E running a series of machine-learning models.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018I expect we will see an exponential growth in the integration of AI and climate models,\u2019 he said.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EReality check\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn current climate modelling, human researchers make formulas in a bid to forecast weather.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\u0022tw-text-center tw-text-blue tw-font-bold tw-text-2xl lg:tw-w-1\/2 tw-border-2 tw-border-blue tw-p-12 tw-my-8 lg:tw-m-12 lg:tw--ml-16 tw-float-left\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022tw-text-5xl tw-rotate-180\u0022\u003E\u201c\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cp class=\u0022tw-font-serif tw-italic\u0022\u003EWe want to know the driving factors.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \u003Cfooter\u003E\n \u003Ccite class=\u0022tw-not-italic tw-font-normal tw-text-sm tw-text-black\u0022\u003E Professor Dim Coumou, XAIDA\u003C\/cite\u003E\n \u003C\/footer\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBy contrast, AI systems take massive amounts of weather data to build a prediction model that autonomously tweaks itself over and over until getting as close to reality as possible.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECoumou leads an EU-funded research project running in parallel with CLINT and, like it, trying to harness AI to improve predictions of extreme weather. Called\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/101003469\u0022\u003EXAIDA\u003C\/a\u003E, his four-year initiative runs through August 2025 and involves partners in France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and the UK.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn contrast to CLINT, the XAIDA team is focusing also on the underlying causes of extreme weather.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECoumou\u2019s main research interest is how global warming is affecting both the number and intensity of extreme weather events.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn addition to his work at the University of Amsterdam\u2019s Institute for Environmental Studies, he works with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and coordinates a special research group called \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/climateextremes.eu\/\u0022\u003Eclimateextremes.eu\u003C\/a\u003E that also involves the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018It\u2019s about understanding the role of climate change in events ranging from heat waves to droughts and extreme rainfall,\u2019 said Coumou. \u2018We want to know the driving factors.\u2019\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EInside look\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut to make use of AI, the researchers are grappling with its enormous complexity.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EPopular AI systems work by putting data through a vast network of \u201cparameters\u201d \u2013 values that algorithms change as they learn. The latest AI model, GPT4, was released earlier this year and has 1.76 trillion parameters.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETo explain the outcome, researchers first must figure out what the most important parameters were.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018AI is very powerful, but it\u2019s a challenge to interpret the results,\u2019 said Coumou.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHe and his colleagues are prying open the AI system in an effort to understand\u0026nbsp;which parameters \u2013 based on weather information in their case \u2013 have a key influence on the result.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EHungry machines\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAnother obstacle that the researchers face stems from AI\u2019s hunger for data. In sum, AI needs a lot of the stuff to work well.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhile the world has plenty of weather-related information, sometimes stretching back centuries, it has a dearth of data on the more recent phenomenon of extreme climate events.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018Extreme events are, by definition, rare,\u2019 said Castelletti. \u2018So you don\u2019t always have many observations. That is a major hindrance if you want to use AI methods.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECLINT aims to solve that scarcity of numbers through a method called data augmentation. The researchers use AI systems to create data based on historical information. The new information can then be fed into other AI systems to make predictions.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u2018In the past few years, people across the world were regularly confronted with extreme weather,\u2019 said Castelletti. \u2018At the same time, AI is changing our lives. We need to bridge these worlds and have AI reduce the impact of these extreme events.\u2019\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EResearch in this article was funded by the EU. The views of the interviewees don\u2019t necessarily reflect those of the European Commission. 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